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Mixed News For Michael Howard

Monday 01 December 2003

MORI's latest Political Monitor shows that Michael Howard has failed to increase the Conservatives' voting intention share at an immediate General Election. The poll, conducted between 20-25 November 2003, is the first MORI survey of voting intentions and ratings of the party leaders' performance since Michael Howard was officially named as the new Tory leader. The key messages are:

Among those certain to vote the Conservatives remain unchanged, but Labour are down slightly
Tory supporters are satisfied with Michael Howard's performance
The public are still to make their minds up about Michael Howard's performance so far — though fewer are currently dissatisfied with him than with Tony Blair

Mixed News For Michael Howard

Topline Results

MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,945 adults aged 18+ at 198 sampling points across Britain. Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 20-25 November 2003. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: 1,945 British adults 18+

	%
Conservative	31
Labour	41
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)	21
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	2
Green Party	1
UK Independence Party	1
Other	2

Lab lead (±%)	+10

Would not vote	15
Undecided	10
Refused	1

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: All absolutely certain to vote (983)

	%
Conservative	35
Labour	36
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)	22
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	2
Green Party	2
UK Independence Party	1
Other	2

Lab lead (±%)	+1

Would not vote	1
Undecided	7
Refused	1

Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Duncan Smith / Mr Kennedy are doing their job?
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+

	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Index
	%	%	%	±%
Government	27	63	11	-36
Blair	32	57	11	-25
Howard	26	17	57	+9
Kennedy	40	18	41	+22

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?
Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+

	Q7	Q7/8
	%	%
National Health Service/Hospitals	13	46
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism	25	40
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism	9	29
Education/schools	6	27
Race relations/immigration/immigrants	13	26
Economy/economic situation	4	11
Pensions/social security	2	10
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry	2	8
Common Market/EU/Europe/Single European Currency	2	7
Taxation	2	7
Transport/public transport	1	7
Morality/individual behaviour	2	6
Poverty/inequality	2	5
Housing	1	5
Drug abuse	*	4
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament	1	3
Local government/council tax	*	3
Inflation/prices	*	2
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages	*	2
Pollution/environment	*	2
AIDS	1	1
Countryside/rural life	*	1
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound	*	1
Privatisation	*	1
Petrol prices/fuel	0	1
Trade unions/strikes	0	1
Animal welfare	0	*
Beef/BSE/Mad Cow Disease	0	*
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis	0	*
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods	0	*
Northern Ireland	0	*
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform	0	*

Other	6	16
Don't know	7	6

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+

	%
Improve	14
Stay the same	39
Get worse	41
Don't know	6

MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI]	-27

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?
Base: 1,945 British adults 18+