Direct services

MORI Political Monitor — Political Attitudes in Great Britain

Friday 19 December 2003

Among those who say they are certain to vote at the next General Election, Labour's share of the vote has risen four points, from 36% in November to 40% in December. The Conservatives now on 31% are down four points and the Liberal Democrats remain unchanged on 22%.

MORI's latest research also shows the satisfaction levels with the Government and party leaders, as well as the issues which are most concerning the public and economic optimism.

Fieldwork was conducted 11-17 December, though most interviews were carried out after the capture of Saddam Hussein last Sunday.

MORI's Review of 2003, covering politics, public services, the economy, Europe and trust, will be released shortly. To register for a copy, please contact Julia Clark

Topline Results

MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,913 adults aged 18+ at 197 sampling points across Great Britain. Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 11-17 December 2003. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: 1,913 British adults 18+

	%
Conservative	28
Labour	43
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)	22
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	2
Green Party	1
UK Independence Party	1
Other	2

Lab lead (±%)	+15

Would not vote	13
Undecided	11
Refused	1

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: All absolutely certain to vote (978)

	%
Conservative	31
Labour	40
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)	22
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	3
Green Party	1
UK Independence Party	1
Other	2

Lab lead (±%)	+9

Would not vote	1
Undecided	7
Refused	2

Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Duncan Smith / Mr Kennedy are doing their job?
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+

	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Index
	%	%	%	±%
Government	29	60	11	-31
Blair	36	55	9	-19
Howard	22	21	57	+1
Kennedy	41	20	39	+21

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?
Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+

	Q7	Q7/8
	%	%
National Health Service/Hospitals	13	41
Education/schools	8	33
Race relations/immigration/immigrants	15	29
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism	12	26
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism	8	22
Common Market/EU/Europe/Single European Currency	5	12
Economy/economic situation	5	12
Pensions/social security	3	11
Taxation	3	10
Transport/public transport	1	8
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry	2	7
Poverty/inequality	2	6
Drug abuse	1	5
Housing	1	5
Local government/council tax	1	4
Morality/individual behaviour	1	4
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament	1	4
Pollution/environment	1	4
Inflation/prices	*	2
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages	0	2
AIDS	*	1
Countryside/rural life	*	1
Petrol prices/fuel	*	1
Privatisation	*	1
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform	0	1
Beef/BSE/Mad Cow Disease	*	*
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis	*	*
Animal welfare	0	*
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods	0	*
Northern Ireland	0	*
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound	0	*
Trade unions/strikes	0	*

Other	8	17
Don't know	7	6

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+

	%
Improve	16
Stay the same	42
Get worse	36
Don't know	6

MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI]	-20

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?
Base: 1,913 British adults 18+