MORI Political Monitor — Political Attitudes in Great Britain

Tuesday 23 September 2003

Labour Lead Increases

Labour has stretched its lead over the Conservatives despite Tony Blair's difficulties on Iraq, MORI's latest survey for the Financial Times shows. Asked how they would vote in a general election held tomorrow, of those who said they were certain to vote, 40% replied Labour, 31% Conservative and 21% Liberal Democrats.

However, the public continue to be dissatisfied about the way Tony Blair is doing his job (-35% net satisfied), and how well the Government is running the country (-39% net satisfied).

Iain Duncan Smith's approvals ratings are also deep in negative territory (-30% net satisfied), and only 15% of the public think he would make the most capable Prime Minister.

Should Tony Blair Resign?

1 October 2003

While Labour may still retain a lead over the Conservatives in the polls, the latest MORI survey results for the Financial Times show that the public are far from happy with the Prime Minister's performance. Two in five (43%) say the Prime Minister is out of touch with ordinary people and half the public say it is now time for him to resign and hand over to someone else (39% disagree).

If Gordon Brown was leader of the Labour Party, more of the electorate say they would vote Labour in a General Election (the party's share of the vote rising from 40% to 45% among those who say they are certain to vote).

MORI's poll also reveals the issues the public feel are most important when deciding who to vote for, which party is seen as best placed to deal with the public's priorities, attitudes towards the Labour party and trade unions, and expectations on public services and the economy.

Public Do Not Think Iain Duncan Smith Is Ready To Be Prime Minister

6 October 2003

Two-thirds of the British public (67%) do not think that the Conservative Party leader, Iain Duncan Smith is ready to be Prime Minister. Only 16% agree that Duncan Smith is ready to move into Downing Street, and 17% say they do not know. The MORI survey for the Financial Times also shows that three times as many people disagree that "the Conservatives are ready to form the next Government" (64%) than agree (21%).

MORI's survey also shows that opposition to British participation in the Euro is hardening, with 38% saying they are "strongly opposed", and a further 22% "generally opposed". In contrast, just 14% say they are "strongly in favour" and 20% "generally in favour".

Topline Results

MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,976 adults aged 18+ at 187 sampling points across Great Britain. Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face in respondents homes on 11-16 September 2003. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: 1,976 British adults 18+

	%
Conservative	29
Labour	43
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)	21
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	3
Green Party	2
UK Independence Party	1
Other	2
Lab lead (±%)	+14
Would not vote	14
Undecided	9
Refused	1

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: All absolutely certain to vote (1,049)

	%
Conservative	31
Labour	40
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)	21
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	3
Green Party	2
UK Independence Party	*
Other	3
Lab lead (±%)	+9
Would not vote	1
Undecided	6
Refused	1

Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Duncan Smith / Mr Kennedy are doing their job?
Base: 952 British adults 18+

	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Index
	%	%	%	±%
Government	27	66	7	-39
Blair	29	64	7	-35
Duncan Smith	19	49	32	-30
Kennedy	35	29	37	+6

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?
Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?
Base: 952 British adults 18+

	Q7	Q7/8
	%	%
National Health Service/Hospitals	12	40
Defence/foreign affairs/international terrorism	22	37
Race relations/immigration/immigrants	18	29
Education/schools	4	28
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism	9	24
Economy/economic situation	4	14
Common Market/EU/Europe/Single European Currency	5	13
Pensions/social security	4	12
Unemployment/factory closure/lack of industry	2	9
Housing	1	7
Transport/public transport	1	7
Drug abuse	2	6
Taxation	*	6
Poverty/inequality	2	5
Morality/individual behaviour	1	5
Nuclear weapons/nuclear war/disarmament	1	4
Low pay/minimum wage/fair wages	*	3
Inflation/prices	*	2
Local government/council tax	*	2
Pollution/environment	*	2
AIDS	*	1
Countryside/rural life	0	1
GM/GM (Genetically Modified) foods	0	1
Petrol prices/fuel	0	1
Trade unions/strikes	0	1
Northern Ireland	*	*
Scottish/Welsh Assembly/Devolution Constitutional reform	*	*
Animal welfare	0	*
Beef/BSE/Mad Cow Disease	0	*
Foot and mouth outbreak/farming crisis	0	*
Pound/exchange rate/value of pound	0	*
Privatisation	0	*
Other	6	20
Don't know	6	0

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?
Base: 952 British adults 18+

	%
Improve	14
Stay the same	43
Get worse	37
Don't know	7
MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI]	-23

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?
Base: 1,976 British adults 18+

	%
10 — absolutely certain to vote	53
9	6
8	7
7	3
6	3
5	8
4	3
3	3
2	2
1 — absolutely certain not to vote	11
Don't know	1

Q11 Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, of these issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?
Base: 1,976 British adults 18+

	%
Asylum	39
Animal welfare	9
Constitution/devolution	10
Defence	20
Education	53
Europe	22
Health care	62
Housing	20
Law and order	49
Managing the economy	27
Pensions	42
Protecting the natural environment	19
Public transport	25
Taxation	32
Trade Unions	7
Unemployment	24
Other	2
Don't know	5

Q12 I am going to read out a list of problems facing Britain today and for each one, I would like you to tell me whether you think that the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party has the best policy on each?
Base: 1,976 British adults 18+

	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrats	Other	None of these	Don't know
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Asylum	26	14	8	3	16	33
Animal welfare	8	15	10	8	12	47
Constitution/devolution	17	20	9	3	10	41
Defence	23	23	7	2	11	34
Education	20	27	14	1	10	28
Europe	24	21	11	2	11	31
Health care	16	30	11	2	13	29
Housing	13	27	7	2	13	39
Law and order	25	23	7	1	13	31
Managing the economy	20	31	6	1	11	31
Pensions	17	21	9	2	16	36
Protecting the natural environment	9	14	18	15	11	34
Public transport	11	26	10	3	16	33
Taxation	23	23	10	1	11	31
Trade Unions	15	34	5	1	10	35
Unemployment	13	36	6	1	11	33

Q13-14 Please tell me whether you think that the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party has the best policy on the following?
Base: 1,976 British adults 18+

	Conservative	Labour	Liberal Democrats	Other	None of these	Don't know
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Business	34	19	5	1	7	33
Workers	11	38	9	1	9	31

Q15-17 Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit ₀?
Base: 952 British adults 18+

	Mr Blair	Mr Duncan Smith	Mr Kennedy
	%	%	%
A capable leader	30	9	19
Good in a crisis	23	3	3
Understands world problems	23	9	11
Tends to talk down to people	24	12	2
Rather narrow minded	17	14	4
Too inflexible	19	8	3
Has sound judgement	10	7	11
More honest than most politicians	8	11	25
Down-to-earth	11	8	25
Understands the problems facing Britain	20	13	15
Patriotic	17	22	11
Has got a lot of personality	23	3	16
Rather inexperienced	4	34	24
Out of touch with ordinary people	43	24	6
No opinion	10	29	38

Q18 Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister: Mr Blair, Mr Duncan Smith or Mr Kennedy?
Base: 952 British adults 18+

	%
Blair	42
Duncan Smith	15
Kennedy	18
Don't know	25

Q19-21 Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Read through the list slowly keeping the [… Party] in mind. Every time you come to a statement that fits your ideas or impressions of the [… Party], just tell the letter next to it. You may pick as many or as few as you like. You don't have to be certain, just pick the letters next to the statements you feel fit the [… Party].
Base: 952 British adults 18+

	Labour	Conservative	Liberal Democrats
	%	%	%
Keeps its promises	4	4	7
Understands the problems facing Britain	23	20	19
Represents all classes	19	8	29
Looks after the interests of people like us	12	9	12
Moderate	14	14	30
Extreme	9	12	1
Concerned about the people in real need in Britain	16	11	22
Has a good team of leaders	14	8	7
Will promise anything to win votes	43	35	16
Out of touch with ordinary people	32	32	5
Has sensible policies	14	16	29
Too dominated by its leader	40	5	4
Professional in its approach	13	14	14
Divided	31	34	4
No opinion	12	19	35

Q22a How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow and Gordon Brown was leader of the Labour Party? (IF AGED 15-17 ADD: If you were old enough to vote?)
IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q9
Q22b Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: 1,976 British adults 18+

	%
Conservative	27
Labour	45
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)	20
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	3
Green Party	2
UK Independence Party	1
Other	3
Lab lead (±%)	+18
Would not vote	12
Undecided	7
Refused	1

Q22a How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow and Gordon Brown was leader of the Labour Party? (IF AGED 15-17 ADD: If you were old enough to vote?)
IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q9
Q22b Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: All absolutely certain to vote (1,049)

	%
Conservative	30
Labour	45
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)	19
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	3
Green Party	1
UK Independence Party	*
Other	2
Lab lead (±%)	+15
Would not vote	1
Undecided	4
Refused	1

Q23 Which two or three of the following, do you think have the most influence on Tony Blair?
Base: 952 British adults 18+

	%
Cherie Blair	41
Gordon Brown	20
George Bush	57
Alastair Campbell	25
Peter Mandelson	11
Jack Straw	8
Ian McCartney — Chairman of the Labour Party	3
The Cabinet Secretary	2
The Media	30
The Public	8
Other	1
None	1
Don't know	8

Q24 Who, if any, of the following do you think are members of the Shadow Cabinet?
Base: 952 British adults 18+

	%
Michael Ancram	26
Charles Clarke	10
Kenneth Clarke	21
Michael Heseltine	11
Michael Howard	26
Oliver Letwin	19
Theresa May	24
John Redwood	15
Ann Widdecombe	24
None	2
Don't know	38

Q25 Which of the following best describes your own view of British participation in the single currency?
Base: 1,976 British adults 18+

	%
I strongly support British participation	14
I am generally in favour of British participation, but could be persuaded against it if I though it would be bad for the British economy	20
I am generally opposed to British participation, but could be persuaded in favour of it if I though it would be good for the British economy	22
I strongly oppose British participation	38
Don't know	6

Q26-28 On balance, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?
Base: 1,976 British adults

	Agree	Disagree	Don't know	Net agree
	%	%	%	%
The Conservatives are ready to form the next Government	21	64	15	-43
Ian Duncan Smith is ready to be Prime Minister	16	67	17	-51
It's now time for Tony Blair to resign and hand over to someone else	50	39	11	+11

Q29-30 On balance, do you agree or disagree that "in the long term, this government's policies will improve the state of ₀"?
Base: 952 British adults 18+

	Britain's Economy	Britain's Public Services
	%	%
Agree	39	33
Disagree	45	52
Don't know	17	15
Net agree (+)	-6	-19

Q31-32 On balance, do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements?
Base: 952 British adults 18+

	Agree	Disagree	Don't know	Net agree
	%	%	%	%
Trade unions have too much power in Britain today	29	57	15	-28
The Labour Party should not be so closely linked to the trade unions	41	38	21	+3

Q33 From what you know or have heard, who do you think bears a major responsibility for the death of the Government scientist, Dr Kelly, in July 2003?
Base: 952 British adults 18+

	%
Alastair Campbell	13
Andrew Gilligan (the reporter on the BBC Radio 4 Today Programme)	14
BBC	9
Dr Kelly himself	26
Geoff Hoon (the Defence Secretary)	22
Ministry of Defence/Civil Servants	21
Parliament	8
The media generally	24
Tony Blair	22
Other	2
None	1
Don't know	18

Q34 Which, if any of the following do you think should resign as a result of the death of Dr Kelly?
Base: 952 British adults 18+

	%
Alastair Campbell	17
Andrew Gilligan (the reporter on the BBC Radio 4 Today Programme)	15
Geoff Hoon (the Defence Secretary)	33
Greg Dyke (Director General of the BBC)	7
Kevin Marsh (the Editor of the Today Programme on BBC Radio 4)	3
Richard Sambrook (Head of News and Current Affairs at the BBC)	4
Tony Blair	21
Other	1
None	19
Don't know	24