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MORI Political Monitor — Political Attitudes in Great Britain

Monday 04 August 2003

The Conservatives are now ahead of Labour in voting intentions (38% to 35%) based on all those who say they are "absolutely certain to vote". This is five points up for the Tories since the last General Election.

Tony Blair's personal approval rating index stands at -28% (that is the percentage who are positive about Blair minus the percentage who are negative) and has been negative since April 2002, with the one exception in April 2003. Ian Duncan Smith's approval index is also negative at -20%, though this is up from -28% in June. More approve of the way Charles Kennedy is doing his job (+13%).

The MORI Economic Optimism Index is at -22%, slightly down from June (-20%) but much better than in January (-46%) or February (-50%) recorded earlier this year.

Topline Results

MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,940 adults aged 18+ at 192 sampling points across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted face-to-face on 17–22 July 2003. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: 1,940 British adults 18+

	%
Conservative	32
Labour	40
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)	21
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	3
Green Party	2
Democratic/UKIP Party	1
Other	2

Lab lead (±%)	+8

Would not vote	15
Undecided	10
Refused	1

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: All absolutely certain to vote (1,000)

	%
Conservative	38
Labour	35
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem)	21
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist	3
Green Party	1
Democratic/UKIP Party	1
Other	1

Lab lead (±%)	-3

Would not vote	1
Undecided	7
Refused	2

Q3-6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government / Mr Blair / Mr Duncan Smith / Mr Kennedy are doing their job?
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+

	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Don't know	Index
	%	%	%	±%
Government	26	65	9	-39
Blair	32	60	8	-28
Duncan Smith	25	45	30	-20
Kennedy	39	26	35	+13

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?
Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+

	Q7	Q7/8
	%	%
National Health Service /Hospitals	15	43
Education / schools	8	33
Race relations / immigration / immigrants	16	29
Crime/law & order/violence/vandalism	10	26
Defence / foreign affairs / international	12	24
Common Market/ EU/ Europe / Single European Currency	6	11
Pensions / social security	2	11
Unemployment / factory closure / lack of	3	10
Economy / Economic situation	3	9
Transport / public transport	1	9
Housing	2	6
Morality / individual behaviour	1	6
Nuclear weapons / nuclear war / disarmament	2	4
Pollution / the environment	1	4
Taxation	1	4
Drug Abuse	*	4
Inflation / prices	*	2
Low pay / Minimum wage / fair wages	*	2
Aids	*	1
Beef / BSE / Mad Cow Disease	*	1
Countryside / Rural life	*	1
Local Government / council tax	*	1
Pound / exchange rate / value of pound	*	1
Privatisation	*	1
Trade unions / strikes	*	1
Scottish/Welsh Assembly / Devolution Constitutional reform	*	1
GM / GM (Genetically Modified) foods	0	1
Animal welfare	0	*
Foot and Mouth outbreak / farming crisis	0	*


Other	7	15
Don't know	7	5

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?
Base: 1,000 British adults 18+

	%
Improve	15
Stay the same	42
Get worse	37
Don't know	6

MORI Economic Optimism Index [EOI]	-22

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?
Base: 1,940 British adults 18+