Thursday 13 January 2000
- Fieldwork dates: 3rd-10th January 2000
- Base: 1,200 respondents, Arica - Puerto Montt
- Representation: 70% of the country
- Sampling error: +3%
- Methodology: Names taken from the electoral register (Arica - Puerto Montt). Three stage sample; stage one and two were random samples and stage three was a quota sample.
This study was made before the announcement on the Pinochet case by the British Government.
MORI has updated the sampling frame since the predictions made on 12th December, where votes were estimated at 48.6% for Lagos and 42.1% for Lavín.
The previous sampling frame had variations according to
geographical position listings and the unemployed.
This update has been carried out with the help of foreign consultants and national specialists on the theme.
The control variable is the voting intention from the 12th December survey.
This survey studies the electoral process in Chile, the independence of the media, voting patterns and the perception of bribery today in the country.
In respect to voting intentions there is a tie amongst voters between Lagos and Lavín, the difference is less than the sampling margin of error. The figures show a difference of less than 1%, though an advantage of some decimal places for Lagos, which is not statistically significant to give a clear winner.
Statistically this difference can be doubled or ignored due to the impracticability of making a prediction.
A sample with a margin of error less than 1% would be necessary for this to be a significant difference, this would mean interviewing several thousand people.
The survey shows that a significant part (9%) of the electorate believe that the election is not a secret ballot.
40% think there are pressures in voting, mainly by supporters of Lavín, 27% (businesses and opposition).
Adding the 9% of the electorate, who in the 12th December survey were undecided until the day of voting, makes the situation look very delicate.
The result of the election could be determined by the effect of voting pressures, if this affects the 70,000 people who are 1% of all voters who will decide the winner.
There are two main sources for deciding how to vote.
The first being TV, 70% say they follow the campaign on TV and 43% say the most useful source of information on candidates is the TV.
The second source of influence is from friends and family, 15% say these people are the main source of information on deciding how to vote.
It is not unusual then that 27% of the electorate are trying to influence their friends and families votes.
At the time of voting daily newspapers only have an influence on 8% of the public.
Chile finds itself with a delicate election; with a written press that is not seen as being independent, with competing campaigns where there are voting pressures and an absence of financial regulation amongst the campaigns, where differences in resource levels of candidates are obvious.
With 9% of the public to decide on the day of voting, the results of the election remain open.
- Is it a secret ballot?
- Do they offer bonuses, incentives or holidays for voting for a particular candidate?
- Who has pressures on you in order to vote for a particular candidate?
- Independence of the written press.
- The deciding moment in the 12th December survey.
- The most useful source of information for deciding which candidate to vote for.
- Electoral motivation.
- Things that have happened in the campaign.
- Do surveys influence the people's vote.