Wednesday 22 March 2000
A survey was carried out between 3-12 March 2000 in order to know citizens of Chile's opinion in regard to the change of command and the establishment of the new one.
- 1,200 people were interviewed representing 70% of the total population in Chile
- From Arica to Puerto Montt (in 30 different cities)
- The margin of error was about 3%
- The survey was carried out during the week Pinochet got back to Chile, after 16 months of detention in UK. The survey was finished on the establishment day of the new government.
- The survey's result was similar to general electoral results. This is not a post electoral survey, because it wasn't done the week after elections. This survey was produced 2 months after the elections, and it makes inquiries among some aspects after the elections.
Lavin and Lagos' Leadership: Why did you vote Lagos/Lavin?
Chilean people voted for them because of their personal qualifications more than any other reason. We wanted to find out the audiences reasons when they voted in the second round. An open question was made.
The spontaneous answers were classified in 3 different categories:
- by political - ideological
- by personal reasons
- by election manifesto
None of the candidates had a high percentage in any individual category of response. The audience can see in them several skills and none of them is remarkable above the other. Election manifesto reasons are the less remarkable.
Compulsory vote - High free audience participation
69% of Chilean's older than 18 years old would have voted if the vote was not compulsory. 23% wouldn't have voted if the vote was not compulsory.
This percentage (69%) is really high compared to industrialised democracies (approx. 50%). Conclusion: politics is important for Chileans. Chilean citizens don't like media politics. They prefer real politics.
The last 5 Presidents in Chile - the best and the worse.
Which President has been the best and the worse?
Worse President:
- 37% anti-Pinochetistas
- 31% anti-Allendistas
- 11% Aylwin
- 10% Frei
7 out of 10 Chilean are anti-pinochetistas or anti-allendistas
Best President:
- 28% Pinochet
- 13% Allende
- 51% of Chilean think that demochristians have been the best Presidents.
- 21% Frei was the best president (Frei Montalva)
- 20% Aylwin was the best one
- 10% Frei Ruiz-Tagle
"The best President" (for Chilean) depends on his leadership, and Pinochet still has an important minority.
Pinochet - should he face up to the charge in Court?
- 57% he must face up to the charge
- 38% he must not because he is ill
Considering the data collected during the last 16 months Pinochet was in London, we can say that his retention has increased his supporters. We can conclude:
- 70% (Dec '98): What happens to Pinochet has no influence on them. Neither on their personal or daily life.
- 65-70% ('98 - '99): Consider that Pinochet violated Human Rights so he is guilty.
- 28% consider that Pinochet had the best government (March 2000).
- 40% of Chilean prefer Pinochet not to be judged.
Entry of the New Government - Optimism and high expectation
Past Government evaluation/new government expectations.
- 56% people of the 30 cities in Chile think that the ended government was "not very good"
- 58% think that the (new) government will be a good one
Did your financial situation improve during the last government? Will it be improved during the next government?
It is important to compare the financial situation at the time of government change between Aylwin and Frei in march 1994 with information collected from this date.
| | % |
|---|
Your family financial situation has improved between
1994 and the present day. Data: March '94 | 21 |
Your family financial situation and yours have improved
between 1990 and the present day. Data: March 2000 | 25 |
Your financial situation will improve with Ricardo Lagos'
government. Data: march 2000 | 50 |
Everyone's Government
- 63% think that the new leader will rule for all
- 32% do not think the new leader will rule for all
- 28% Pinochet was the best leader
Surveys and Electoral Behaviour
Do their surveys influence on the way people vote?
- 15% confess to be influenced by surveys
- 28% surveys do not influence them
- 53% surveys influence them just a bit
- 25% surveys influence is just a little
Vote Decision
We asked people when they had decided their vote.
- 12% Last day on the way to polls
This percentage has increased from 3% to 12% in 1993.
- 59% Electoral campaigns have no influence on them. By 1990 it was 70%.
Conclusion
Chilean audience is more influenced by political marketing, electoral campaigns, surveys, and all of them affect directly the stability of the parties.
General Conclusions
The new government inaugurates with optimism and high expectations of financial development for a higher majority than the votes obtained in polls.
Economy
By the end of the two governments (Aylwin, Frei), ¼ of the population think that their financial situation has improved. At the same time, 1 out of 2 Chilean expect to increase their financial situation during Ricardo Lagos' government. 58% think that it will be a good government.
Leadership
Ricardo Lagos and Joaquin Lavin were voted for their personal qualities, not only because of their election manifesto. Presidents before are judged more for political reasons. Pinochet's leadership has been really high and it has increased with his return to Chile.
Technical details
- Period of time: 3-12 March 2000
- The sample represents 70% of Chile
- 3% margin of error
- Population: citizens of 18 years or older, in more than 30 cities with more than 400,000 population (from Arica to Puerto Montt).
Data
Why did you vote Ricardo Lagos?
(only people who voted for him)
| | % |
|---|
Personal reasons
He transmits security/trust
For his experience
For his sincerity
I like him
For his knowledge/intelligence
For his politeness
He's a man of his word
For his seriousness
For his personality
For the way he thinks
For his humbleness/simplicity
| 51
13
11
7
6
4
2
2
2
2
1
1
|
Political reasons - ideological
For his ideas
He doesn't vote right wing
He is welfareist
For democracy maintenance
For the continuity
For Lavin not to be voted in
For his government policy
He is a people's man
| 27
6
4
4
3
3
3
2
2
|
For his public policy's
He fights for the rights of the poor people
For the changes he suggests
| 6
4
2
|
Other
No response
None
| 10
5
1
|
Source: MORI Chile
Base: 476, respondents 51.4 % (those who voted for Ricardo Lagos)
Why did you vote for Joaquin Lavin?
(only people who voted for him)
| | % |
|---|
Personal reasons
He is young
I like him
I trust in him
Sincerity
For himself
Simplicity
Humbleness
For his principles
He is enthusiastic
| 45
21
6
6
3
2
2
2
2
1
|
Political reasons - ideological
Financial ideas
His government plan
He is right wing
| 9
1
4
4
|
For his public policy's
For his progress initiatives
| 3
3
|
For his ideas
For the change
It was something different
| 14
12
2
|
Other
No response
None
| 10
4
2
|
Source: MORI Chile
Base: 451, respondents 48.6% (those who voted for Joaquín Lavín)