Tuesday 13 May 2008
The 2008 London Mayoral elections proved to be a very close race between Labour incumbent Ken Livingstone, and Conservative contender Boris Johnson. Ipsos MORI was commissioned to conduct just four polls in the months prior to the election, and the most recent one, completed more than a week before election day, found the two candidates in a statistical 'dead heat'. Boris Johnson's win a week later illustrated just how close the election was, and how difficult it was to call: turnout was up 9 points to 45%, compared to 36% in 2004. Johnson ultimately won the race with 53% of the vote compared to Livingstone's 47%.
This election was exciting not only because it was a close race, but also because polls and polling methodology were at the centre of many election-related debates in the media and blog communities. As political pollsters we find this debate invigorating; Ipsos MORI has a great history of polling success, and we feel that transparency and openness in the survey process are essential in any such debate. The technical details of all of our polls are available below, and a more detailed summary of how we conduct surveys is available here: (Political Polling at Ipsos MORI: What we do (and don't do!)) pdf, 142KB.
As a matter of course, we are reviewing our political polling methodology following the 2008 London Mayoral elections; as professional pollsters and members of the Market Research Society we consider this to be an essential part of ongoing good practice. It is critical that we understand and amend our modeling of responses in order to ensure our political polls are always as accurate as possible. Ipsos MORI has a very strong reputation for accuracy, as evidenced by our performance at the 2005 General Election (Press Releases By The BPC) and the fact that we were the most accurate pollster at the 2004 Mayoral elections (MORI: Most Accurate Results For London Mayoral Election).
We will publish any and all findings from this review on our website. For now, please direct any questions you might have to 020 7347 3000 or press@ipsos-mori.com, and you will be directed to a member of our Political Team.
Boris Johnson's Victory
Saturday 03 May 2008
The contest for Mayor of London has generated the most interest of any election this year, with the possible exception of the race for the Democratic nomination for President of the United States. Turnout in London was 45%, well up on the last contest four years ago of 36.9%.
London in 2008: Ipsos MORI London Briefing Pack
Friday 02 May 2008
Download a summary of some of Ipsos MORI's in-depth analysis on the 'inbox' of London's new Mayor, Boris Johnson.
Understanding Turnout in the London Mayoral Elections
Wednesday 30 April 2008
Turnout is always the crucial factor in London Mayoral elections. We know from previous election data that people are persistently poor at predicting whether or not they themselves will vote on election day!
London Mayor Poll for UNISON - 23-24 April 2008
Monday 28 April 2008
Ipsos MORI's latest poll on the London Mayoral election puts Ken Livingstone ahead of Boris Johnson by 52% to 48%, among those registered to vote who say they are "absolutely certain to vote", but the gap is not big enough to be statistically significant.
London Mayor Poll For The Observer - 8-9 April 2008
Sunday 13 April 2008
London Mayor Poll for UNISON - 1-7 April 2008
Wednesday 09 April 2008
Ipsos MORI's poll on the London Mayoral election, carried out 1-7 April 2008 for the trade union UNISON, shows the first preference results are 41% for Ken Livingstone, 40% for Boris Johnson, 14% for Brian Paddick, and 5% for Sian Berry among those saying they are "certain to vote" (48%).
London Mayor Poll - 8-12 February 2008
Wednesday 27 February 2008
Ipsos MORI's poll for the Labour Party shows Labour candidate Ken Livingstone on 48% and Conservative candidate Boris Johnson on 46% among Londoners who are certain to vote and in the upcoming Mayoral elections.