Political Monitor August 2006

Monday 11 September 2006

Blair Poll Rating Nears A Thatcherite Low

Satisfaction with the performance of Tony Blair as prime minister has hit new lows over the past two months, the latest Ipsos MORI poll has found. The prime minister's performance rating is now barely a third of what it was immediately following his landslide election in 1997.

Just five months after Blair's massive majority on May 1 nine years ago, three people in four across the country said they were satisfied with his performance, a higher rating even than Margaret Thatcher's peak of 59% at the end of the Falklands war in 1982, and John Major's 63% in February 1991.

Now Blair's satisfaction scores have plummeted. He is less popular than Thatcher was at the same point in her premiership and is only three points off her all time low of 20% — a position she reached just weeks ahead of losing office.

In July, not even a majority of Labour party supporters said they were satisfied with him, among the 36% who say they are certain to vote and vote Labour. While a third of young people, 34%, say they are satisfied with Blair, just one in four aged 55 and over are positive. They have four or five times the voting power of younger voters; there are more than twice as many of them, and they are more than twice as likely to vote.

There is no statistical difference in his satisfaction levels between the middle and working classes, showing how deeply unpopular he has become among Labour's traditional supporters.

Given the strained relations between them, Blair will be stung by the comparison between those who say they would describe him as "trustworthy", 29%, and the 42% who would say that about Gordon Brown. The Tory leader, David Cameron, is trusted by 36%, but a large chunk of his jury is still out; over a third say they just don't know enough about him to say.

Cameron has been becalmed these past three months with only around three people in 10 saying they're satisfied with his performance.

And as don't knows make up their minds, they're swinging to dissatisfied, women more than men. Why? "Where's the beef?"

Yet even without pronouncements on policies, most Tory policies are thought best. Crime/law & order is thought by the most people, 57%, as one of the issues that will be very important to them in helping them to decide which party to vote for, and the Tories enjoy a seven point lead.

They also have a four point lead on having the best policies on healthcare among the 54% who say that will be an important issue, a massive 26 point lead on immigration, and a narrow two point lead on education.

Topline Results

• Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,886 adults aged 18+ at 172 sampling points across Great Britain.
• Fieldwork was conducted face-to-face on 31 August - 6 September 2006.
• Data are weighted to match the profile of the population

Voting — all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (1,087)

Voting — all

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: All naming a party (1,886)

Q3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?
Q4 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Blair is doing his job as Prime Minister?
Q5 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Mr Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party?
Q6 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Sir Menzies Campbell is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats?
Base: 988 British adults 18+

Q7 What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)
Q8 What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today? (Spontaneous)
Base: 988 British adults 18+

Q9 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months?
Base: 988 British adults 18+

Q10 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?
Base: 1,886 British adults 18+

Q11 Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, of these issues do you think will be very important to you in helping you decide which party to vote for?
Base: 988 British adults 18+

Q12-27 I am going to read out a list of issues facing Britain today and for each one, I would like you to tell me whether you think that the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party has the best policy on each?
Base: All who say each issue is very important

Q28-31 Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various politicians. I would like you to pick out all those statements that you feel fit Mr Blair / Tony Blair, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Mr Brown / Gordon Brown, Mr Cameron / David Cameron, Sir Menzies Campbell?
Base: 988 British adults 18+ (split samples except Sir Menzies Campbell)

Q32-34 Read through the list slowly keeping the Labour/Conservative/Liberal Democrat Party in mind. Every time you come to a statement that fits your ideas or impressions of the Labour/Conservative/Liberal Democrat Party just tell me the letter next to it. You may pick as many or as few as you like. You don't have to be certain, just pick the letters next to the statements you feel fit the Labour/Conservative/Liberal Democrat Party.
988 British adults 18+

Q35-38 Would you describe each of the following politicians as trustworthy or not?
988 British adults 18+