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Labour's Nightmare Scenario
1 June 2001
Labour's nightmare may be coming to haunt them the night of the 7th of June. In our survey for the Times a week ago (22nd May), there was just a few points difference between the Conservatives' 'certainty of voting', at 65%, and Labour's at 61%. That four-point gap is widening in our latest survey at the same time that the Labour share is reducing.
The British — Poll Convergence
31 May 2001
Three of the "Big 4" pollsters have now pronounced for this week, and they have converged. All are near to the 50% Labour, 30% Conservative, 14% Liberal Democrat share of the vote that has been the result of nearly every poll conducted since 1st November last year. For the past six months, the state of the parties has been described as 'flat lining'. So it is today.
General Election 2001 : Manifestly "A Waste Of Time"
30 May 2001
The public is considerable less interested in the parties' election manifestos at this election than in 1997, figures from a previously unpublished MORI survey conducted just over a week ago, reveal.
The British — "Tories Face Poll Meltdown"
30 May 2001
"Tories face poll meltdown" is the headline in the Guardian today, although you would not know it from the Today Programme on BBC Radio 4. Despite the headline over the splash in the newspaper, it didn't make the opening news wrap at 6 am, What the Papers Say at 6:15 am, or mention at all in the first half hour of the programme.
General Election 2001 : Voting By Post
29 May 2001
The strange, slow tempo of this election campaign, unusually punctuated by two Bank Holiday weekends, seems to fit this election, which has failed to capture the public imagination or interest, rather well. The projected turnout is stubbornly refusing to shift upwards.
26 May 2001
Once again most of the proprietors of the Sunday newspapers have kept their money in their pockets and left the field to NOP in the Sunday Times, who have Labour on 49%, the Tories on 30%, Lib Dems on 14% and others at 7%. Our model projects this to a 235 seat Labour majority, the BBC's natty model (worth a look) has it at 227. On ours, this result would cost the Tories 19 seats off their 1997 165, add another 28 to Labour's 419, and drop the Liberal Democrats by 8, from 46 at the last election.
General Election 2001 : Party Image
25 May 2001
The changes in the image of the parties since last Autumn, as revealed in our poll published in The Times this morning, illustrate clearly why Labour seems to be winning this election so easily.
Two Weeks To Go
24 May 2001
A four week campaign, half gone, and the Tories are becalmed with their core vote of around 30% +/- 3%, just where they've been ever since William Hague instead of Ken Clarke was chosen as Leader of the Conservative Party. At times like these, one speculates "what if … ".
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