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Digging Up Islwyn Man
23 March 2005
Recent general elections have thrown up shorthand terms to characterise the key voters of the minute, whose decisions are expected to decide the result and on whom the campaigning efforts will be most concentrated. In the 1980s, Margaret Thatcher won elections by successfully appealing to "Essex Man". More recently Worcester Woman and Mondeo Man have been the shorthand terms of choice.
Ethnic Minority Voters And Non-Voters At The 2005 British General Election
9 September 2006
On Saturday 9 September 2006, Dr Roger Mortimore (Ipsos MORI's Senior Political Analyst) spoke at the EPOP Conference in Nottingham*, on "Ethnic Minority Voters and Non-Voters at the 2005 British General Election", delivering a paper by himself and Kully Kaur-Ballagan (Ipsos MORI Head of Ethnic Minority Research). The paper, which draws on Ipsos MORI research conducted for the Electoral Commission after last year's election, explores the turnout and votes of Britain's various Black and minority ethnic (BME) communities. Turnout is strongly associated with a positive attitude to elections in general, as might be expected; but there is also some evidence of a strong community effect, with those who live in areas with many other BME residents disproportionately likely to have voted. Surprisingly, there is no evidence that attitudes to the government's policy in Iraq had any significant effect. The findings also illustrate how a high quality research design, including respondents from...
MORI's Polling Performance In The 2005 Election
14 December 2006
MORI's final poll of the 2005 election campaign, published in the London Evening Standard on election day, predicted the Conservative and Liberal Democrat shares of the vote spot-on, and missed Labour by two percentage points - an average error of 0.67 points on the three major parties, well within the normally accepted margins of error.
One Year To Go!
1 May 2004
One year to go until the next General Election. May 5, 2005, is my odds-on bet for the date of the next election, which given the rules, it is likely to be called on Thursday, 7 April. There are two other anniversaries that have been celebrated (?) in the past few days: Tony Blair's 7th year in office, and the invasion of Iraq a year ago.
Political Commentary - The Vanishing Gender Gap
9 February 2007
At the 2005 election, probably for the first time ever in a British general election, more women than men voted Labour [Who Voted Which Way — In Detail]. Since David Cameron's election as Conservative leader, many of his initiatives have seemed clearly aimed at re-establishing the Conservatives' traditional strength among women. How is he doing?
Squalls Can Still Upset Labour's Smooth Passage
2 May 2005
Labour looks to be sailing in on the tide. Although this is still the most volatile election in recent political experience, many in the British electorate have yet gone nap on which party to support. A third of those who are "absolutely certain to vote" still say they might change their minds between this weekend's fieldwork and Thursday.
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