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How did you vote?
3 April 2001
MORI's political polls frequently include a question asking respondents how they voted at the last general. However, although the responses are useful to us in a number of ways, we do not expect them to be an entirely accurate reflection of how the respondents did, in fact, vote. Consequently the responses of a representative sample will NOT normally match the actual result of the last election, and the fact that a sample's recalled vote differs from the election result is not evidence that the sample is unrepresentative.
To The Hustings?
30 March 2001
There is little in this week's MORI poll for The Times [Political Attitudes in Great Britain for March 2001] which should discourage Tony Blair from calling the general election next week, should he wish to do so, for fear of the political effects. It is true that the public seems profoundly unimpressed with the government's handling of the Foot and Mouth crisis, and that opinion on this issue has deteriorated over the last week (69% were dissatisfied with the way the Government is handling the Foot and Mouth outbreak in the Times poll, conducted on 22-27 March, compared with 52% dissatisfied on 15-17 March when we polled for the Mail on Sunday [FOOT AND MOUTH POLL]). But this dissatisfaction has not fed through into any adverse change in voting intentions: Labour's share is 50%, as it was in January and February.
Decision day looms
23 March 2001
Should he or shouldn't he? Tony Blair still seems determined to call the election for 3 May, though he has yet to make any announcement; the public seem decidedly less enthusiastic. Nevertheless, MORI's poll for the Mail on Sunday [FOOT AND MOUTH POLL] suggested that few of those opposed to holding the election on 3 May feel that if the government were to do so it would make them less likely to vote Labour.
Before "Essex Man"
16 March 2001
As we wait to discover whether the election will indeed be held on the apparently pre-ordained date of 3 May, or whether the ravages of Foot and Mouth disease will eventually force a postponement, a bit of electoral trivia in answer to a question that I was asked last week. Which is the most typical constituency in the country?
Regional Patterns Of Swing
23 February 2001
A few weeks ago I wrote here about how many seats each of the parties could hope to win in the election, assuming various levels of swing from the 1997 result; but I entered a caveat that this assumed uniform national swing, which in practice is unlikely.
Some Basic Electoral Numbers
19 January 2001
At the last general election, Labour won 44.4% of the vote in Great Britain and that secured them 419 seats or an overall majority in the Commons of 179. In the vast majority of those constituencies where the result was marginal or even semi-marginal, the Conservatives were in second place; they won 31.4% of the vote across Great Britain, 13% behind Labour, and secured 165 seats.
How Blair Will Win In May 2001
31 December 1999
There's no mystery behind Labour's poll lead, says MORI's Sir Robert Worcester — it's the Opposition, stupid
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