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1 September 2007
Brown's challenge will be to maintain support in the polls once the 'bounce' wears off
Political Commentary - In Which Gordon Is Unbounced?
10 August 2007
The much-discussed "Brown bounce" persists. Since our last poll (towards the end of July), which found Labour six points ahead of the Conservatives in the voting intentions of those who say they are absolutely certain to vote, five other polls have been published, all putting Labour ahead by between three and nine points — indeed, every published conducted since the last week of June has put the lead at six points, plus-or-minus three; until the middle of June, all the polls had Labour behind the Tories. No polling company has yet found a statistically significant fall in the lead compared to their previous poll, since Gordon Brown entered Number Ten.
Political Commentary - Blair vs. Thatcher: Public Perceptions Following Resignation Announcements
18 May 2007
Tony Blair's legacy has been the topic of discussion across the media and the world of late. His recent announcement of his resignation date has led to a small boost in the polls for the Labour party, according to some of the latest polls. In his speech announcing his intention to go, Blair highlighted some of the key accomplishments of his time as Prime Minister, citing improved healthcare, schools and employment. However, despite comparing favourably to Margaret Thatcher on a number of measures, our latest data shows that Blair's legacy will undoubtedly be overshadowed by the war in Iraq. The findings from our recent poll (link below) are compared to the public's views of Mrs Thatcher immediately after her announcement of her intention to resign in November 1990.
Political Commentary - Will May 3rd Be A Dreich Day For Labour In Scotland?
17 April 2007
According to political folklore, the results of general elections are dependent on the weather. If polling day is cold, wet and grey — a dreich day as us Scots would say — it was long assumed that the Conservatives would benefit. Their supporters, the argument went, were more likely than Labour's supporters to brave the weather. A forecast of warmth and sunshine, in contrast, was seen as a positive omen for Labour's fortunes.
Political Commentary - The 'Falklands Factor' Revisited
10 April 2007
A number of events, commemorations and television programmes have recently marked the twenty-fifth anniversary of the Argentine invasion of the Falklands islands. Received wisdom seems to have it that the "Falklands Factor" was the political making of Margaret Thatcher, but data from the Ipsos MORI Public Affairs Archive says something quite different.