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Tory Own Goals
1 December 2000
This week's MORI political poll for The Times sees the government's voting intention lead over the Conservatives widening again. The Opposition have failed to make their attacks on the government stick, and both this and other recent polls offer clues why this might be the case.
Labour's Heartland Revival
1 September 2000
MORI's monthly poll for The Times published last week received a lot of attention and secondary reporting, mostly concentrating on the four-point drop in the Conservative voting intention share, to its lowest level since April. But the finding that may be by far the most politically significant was much less widely reported. Over the last four months there has been what may amount to a sea-change in the attitudes of Labour supporters to voting. One reading of the figures would suggest it may presage the difference between significant Tory gains that may secure William Hague's position to fight a second election, and another Labour landslide.
21 July 2000
Two leaked memos, one by Tony Blair and one by Labour's Political Consultant and pollster Philip Gould, have stirred up the news agenda this week, but beyond the embarrassment of the leaks themselves it is hard to see what much of the fuss is about. They tell us little we didn't know or guess already.
Soft Labour Vote? Not So, At Least Not Yet
10 May 2000
The first poll taken entirely after the call of the election shows a widening of the lead for Labour, and on every measure, Labour gaining even further ground on the Conservatives.
Labour slumps in Ayr
17 March 2000
So, the Conservatives have comfortably gained Ayr from Labour in the first by-election to the Scottish Parliament
(as the polls suggested they would! - ICM/Scotsman poll, Scottish Opinion/Daily Record poll), with Labour convincingly beaten into third by the Scottish National Party, and their Liberal Democrat coalition partners slipping to fifth behind the Scottish Socialist Party. What, if anything, are the wider implications for Labour, and for the Tories?
Labour and the 'Gender Gap'
3 March 2000
The Labour Party (or, to be precise, the Labour Representation Committee as it then was) was founded a hundred years ago this week. The driving force behind the LRC's foundation was the trade union movement, with the intention of getting working men into Parliament, and thereby better to represent working class voters.
25 February 2000
In ten weeks' time, in theory, Londoners should be voting for their first directly-elected mayor. Even that is uncertain: because the House of Lords has blocked the passage of the regulations that will govern the contest, there is even the possibility that it may have to be postponed altogether. If so, it would be a final indignity in keeping with the shambles which has pervaded all aspects of the proceedings up to now.
How Blair Will Win In May 2001
31 December 1999
There's no mystery behind Labour's poll lead, says MORI's Sir Robert Worcester — it's the Opposition, stupid
10 Myths About The 1997 Election
1 July 1999
Explaining Labour's Landslide
Sir Robert Worcester & Roger Mortimore
Published 20 July 1999
£19.95 / $35 (inc p&p)
Surveys Hint That The Real Fight Is Beginning At Last
15 April 1997
The Conservatives are up all average three points, to 32 per cent, and Labour is down by four,to 49 per cent, since the first week of the campaign. There have been seven polls published since my report last week and a clear pattern is emerging, led by the MORI poll in The Times last Thursday which so galvanised the Prime Minister.
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