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Northern Rock, Metric Measurements And The EU Constitutional Treaty

Published:24 September 2007
Fieldwork:20-22 September 2007
Sub-Theme:Voting Intention (only those 'certain to vote')
Source:The Sun
Keywords:Economy, Europe, Referendums, Voting intention
(Click on keywords to find related Research)

Ipsos MORI's recent survey for The Sun (conducted by telephone 20-22 September 2007) shows Labour on 42%, the Conservatives on 34% and the Liberal Democrats on 14%, giving a Labour lead of 8 points.

The survey focuses on British support for the new EU Constitutional Treaty, and shows that more than eight in ten (81%) people would prefer that the question of whether or not Britain should sign the Treaty be put to a referendum rather than decided by Parliament (16%). However, views are equally divided on support for the treaty, with 44% saying they are in favour of it, and 46% against, with one in ten saying they 'don't know'. However, with fewer than half (45%) of the public saying they would be 'certain to vote' if a referendum were held, there is no guarantee that an actual vote would produce such a balanced divide in opinion.

Our survey also finds that two in five (42%) are satisfied with the way the Government handled the problems with Northern Rock. Furthermore, more than half (54%) of the public would prefer Labour's team of Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling over the Conservative team of David Cameron and George Osborne in handling another similar crisis.

Topline Results

  • Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative quota sample of 1,009 adults in Great Britain aged 18+.
  • Interviews were conducted by telephone between 20-22 September 2007.
  • Data are weighted to match the profile of the population.
  • Download the data tabulations pdf, 140KB

Voting — all absolutely certain to vote

Qa How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Qa Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (530)

  %
Conservative 34
Labour 42
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 14
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 2
UK Independence Party 2
Other 3
 
Lab lead (±%) +8
 
Would not vote 1
Undecided 6
Refused 3

Voting — all

Qb How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

(If undecided or refused at Q1)

Qb Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All naming a party (1,009)

  %
Conservative 30
Labour 44
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 15
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 2
Other 3
 
Lab lead (±%) +14
 
Would not vote 11
Undecided 6
Refused 2

Qc And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?
Base: 1,009 British adults 18+

  %
10 — absolutely certain to vote 52
9 6
8 8
7 5
6 3
5 11
4 2
3 2
2 1
1 — absolutely certain not to vote 9
Don't know 1
Refused *

Q1 Overall, are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government has handled the problems with the Northern Rock Bank?

  %
Very satisfied 11
Fairly satisfied 31
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied 21
Fairly dissatisfied 13
Very dissatisfied 12
Don't know 12
Total satisfied 42
Total dissatisfied 25

Q2 Which team of leaders do you have more confidence in to handle a similar problem in the future, … or … ?

  %
The Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Chancellor Alastair Darling 54
The Conservative leader David Cameron and his Shadow Chancellor George Osborne 22
Neither 14
Both equally 1
Don't know 9

Q3 Which of the following best describes your own view of British membership of the European Union?

  Sept 2006 Sept 2007
  % %
I strongly support British membership of the European Union 16 20
I am generally in favour of British membership of the European Union, but could be persuaded against if I thought it would be bad for Britain 34 33
I am generally opposed to British membership of the European Union, but could be persuaded in favour if I thought it would be good for Britain 22 23
I strongly oppose British membership of the European Union 19 19
Don't know 9 5
Total support 50 53
Total oppose 41 42

Q4 If there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or get out of the European Union, how would you vote?

  Base: All Rebased: All expressing an opinion*
  Stay in Get out Don't know Stay in Get out
  % % % % %
Nov 2000 49 44 7 53 47
15-21 Mar 2001 39 42 19 48 52
30 Apr — 1 May 2001 48 43 9 53 47
22 May 2001 43 41 16 51 49
20-22 Jun 2003 49 41 10 54 46
20-22 Sept 2007 51 39 10 56 44

*Excludes 'don't know' responses

Q5 Do you think that it would be better to allow Parliament to decide whether or not Britain should sign the EU Constitutional Treaty, or should it be put to the British public to decide in a Referendum?

  August 2007 Sept 2007
  % %
Strongly think that Parliament should decide 10 9
Tend to think that Parliament should decide 7 7
Tend to think that it should be decided in a Referendum of the British people 15 18
Strongly think that it should be decided in the Referendum of the British people 66 63
Don't know 2 3
Total — Parliament should decide 17 16
Total — referendum of British people 81 81

Q6 Which of the following best describes your own view of Britain adopting the proposed EU Constitutional Treaty?

  %
I strongly support Britain adopting the EU Constitutional Treaty 9
I am generally in favour of Britain adopting the EU Constitutional Treaty, but could be persuaded against if I thought it would be bad for Britain 35
I am generally opposed to Britain adopting the EU Constitutional Treaty, but could be persuaded in favour if I thought it would be good for Britain 25
I strongly oppose Britain adopting the EU Constitutional Treaty 21
Don't know 10
Total support 44
Total oppose 46

Q7 If there were a referendum now on whether Britain adopt the proposed EU Constitutional Treaty, how would you vote?

  %
For Britain adopting the treaty 32
Against Britain adopting the treaty 38
Would not vote 15
Don't know 15

Q8 How likely are you to vote in a referendum on whether Britain should sign the new European Constitutional Treaty?

  Sept 2004* Sept 2007
  % %
Certain to vote 46 45
Very likely to vote 17 18
Quite likely to vote 14 18
Not very likely to vote 8 10
Certain not to vote 7 5
Don't know 7 4

*NB Wording in 2004 referred to 'the new European Constitution'

Q9 Some opponents of the government say that because Labour promised a referendum on the EU Constitution when they won the 2005 election, there should be a referendum on the new EU Constitutional Treaty. Gordon Brown says that the constitution and the treaty are not the same, and that there is no need for a referendum on the treaty.

Do you think that Mr Brown is going back on the promises his party made in 2005, or do you think Mr Brown is correct in saying that the issue is different?

  %
He is going back on his promises 64
He is correct in saying that the issue is different 21
Don't know 15

If Brown Promises To Hold A Referendum:

Q10a How would you vote a General Election tomorrow if Gordon Brown promises to hold a referendum on Britain adopting the new EU Constitutional Treaty?

(If undecided or refused at Q10a)

Q10b Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (530)

  Q10a/b
  %
Conservative 32
Labour 49
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 11
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 2
UK Independence Party 2
Other 2
 
Lab lead (±%) +17
 
Would not vote *
Undecided 6
Refused 2

If Brown Says He Will Not Hold A Referendum:

Q11a How would you vote a General Election tomorrow if Gordon Brown says that he will not hold a referendum on Britain adopting the EU Constitutional Treaty?

(If undecided or refused at Q11a)

Q11b Which party are you most inclined to support?

Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (530)

  Q11a/b
  %
Conservative 37
Labour 38
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 16
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 3
UK Independence Party 2
Other 1
 
Lab lead (±%) +1
 
Would not vote 3
Undecided 7
Refused 2

Q12 As you may have heard, the EU recently decided to drop rules that would require Britain to use metric measurements of traditional units like pounds, pints and miles.

How strongly would you support and oppose Britain switching to use entirely metric measurements, rather than continuing to use traditional units?

  %
Strongly support switching to metric 11
Tend to support switching to metric 8
Neither support nor oppose 22
Tend to oppose switching to metric 14
Strongly oppose switching to metric 42
Don't know 3
Total support 19
Total oppose 56

Q13 And does the fact that the EU no longer requires Britain to use metric measurements make you more or less likely to support Britain's membership in the EU, or does it make no difference?

  %
More likely to support membership 9
Less likely to support membership 5
Makes no difference 84
Don't know 2
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