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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor April 2013

Support for Labour at 12 month low as public express doubts about Miliband and Labour’s readiness for office

Published:18 April 2013
Fieldwork:13-15 April 2013
Sub-Theme:Political Monitor
Source:Social Research Institute

Support for Labour at 12 month low as public express doubts about Miliband and Labour’s readiness for office

 CON 29 (+2); LAB 38 (-2); LIB DEM 10 (-1); UKIP 15 (+2)

 See our poll on George Osborne and the economy here

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The April Ipsos MORI Political Monitor for the Evening Standard finds support for Labour at its lowest standing for exactly a year, continuing a declining trend since November last year. UKIP on the other hand once again record their highest level of support in an Ipsos MORI poll.

Although little has changed from last month, the overall trend tells a bigger story, with Labour’s support among those certain to vote falling from a high in November 2012 to 38% now. This now puts them on exactly the same standing as in April 2012. The Conservatives are on 29%, staying at their lowest level (except for last month) since 2005.

Twice as many people feel that Labour are not ready to form the next government as think they are ready (58% to 29%), while only one in four (24%) people agree that Ed Miliband is ready to be Prime Minister (66% disagree). While Ed Miliband still has two years to improve them, the figures are significantly below those enjoyed by Tony Blair and David Cameron at similar points before they became Prime Minister. In December 1994 (two and a half years before the 1997 General Election), 59% felt Tony Blair was ready to be Prime Minister while two years away from the 2010 General Election (July 2008), 43% believed Mr Cameron was ready. However, there are positive signs for Mr Miliband with the proportion of people saying he is ready to be Prime Minister rising by 7 points since May 2011.

Nigel Farage remains the least unpopular party leader, with 26% dissatisfied with his performance as UKIP leader (65% are dissatisfied with Nick Clegg, 60% are dissatisfied with David Cameron and 50% are dissatisfied with Ed Miliband). However, four in ten people (40%) do not have an opinion either way on the UKIP leader.

  • 32% are satisfied with David Cameron’s performance as Prime Minister while 60% are dissatisfied. His net satisfaction (% satisfied minus % dissatisfied) of -28 is up two points from last month. 71% of Conservatives are satisfied with Mr Cameron.
  • Net satisfaction with the government has risen 8 points since March to -36 with 29% satisfied and 65% dissatisfied.
  • 21% are satisfied with Nick Clegg and 65% are dissatisfied with his performance as Deputy Prime Minister. This is his lowest satisfaction rating since becoming Deputy Prime Minister and his second lowest net satisfaction (-44) ever as Leader of the Liberal Democrats (the lowest was in October 2012, a net rating of -45).
  • 34% are satisfied with Ed Miliband compared to 50% who are dissatisfied, a net satisfaction of -16. Half (52%) of Labour supporters are satisfied with his performance as Leader.

The public’s economic optimism is at its highest point in 2013, around one in five (22%) expect the state of the country’s economy to improve in the next year while 41% believe it will get worse. A third (35%) think it will stay the same. 

Tom Mludzinski, Deputy Head of Political Research at Ipsos MORI said:

While Nigel Farage and UKIP may take good news out of this poll there is little joy for anyone else. Labour are at a 12 month low as voters have doubts that Ed Miliband and his party are ready to move into Number 10. While he does have two years to change their minds, even his own supporters are not yet fully convinced."

Technical note

Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,010 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 13 – 15 April 2013.  Data are weighted to match the profile of the population

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