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MORI Final Election Poll 2005 (for the Evening Standard)

Published:5 May 2005
Fieldwork:3 - 4 May 2005
Sub-Theme:Voting Intention (only those 'certain to vote')
Source:The Evening Standard

MORI's forecast of 38 per cent for Labour, 33 per cent for the Conservatives and 23 per cent for the Liberal Democrats will disappoint all three party leaders and their followers.

Labour, because they look likely to lose some thirty seats, including several ministers when the votes are counted.

Tories, as their magic figure of 200 seems beyond their grasp, and they look likely to be fighting their fourth leadership contest soon.

The Liberal Democrats will be dismayed putting on fewer than ten seats, far far fewer than they'd hoped, and nowhere near the fantasy that some of their spokesmen were putting around earlier in the week that they looked to take as many as forty seats from each of the two major parties.

Topline Results

  • MORI interviewed 1,628 British adults, aged 18+ by telephone between 3 and 4 May 2005
  • Data are weighted to reflect the national population profile
  • An (*) indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
  • Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers

Voting Intentions — Final MORI Prediction

Voting intention figures are based only on the responses of the 1,164 respondents who said that they were "absolutely certain to vote" or that they had already voted by post. In the final projection figures, adjustments were also made to account for those respondents who said they were certain to vote or had voted but refused to say which party they supported (calculated on the basis of respondents' newspaper readership), and to correct for differential exaggeration of propensity to vote (using a turnout adjustment which reduced by a third the extent to which the turnout gap between supporters of different parties had been narrowed since the start of the campaign). MORI also conducted telephone re-interviews on 4 May with some respondents initially interviewed on 3 May, but no adjustment on the basis of the data from this exercise was judged necessary.

Q1 How do you intend to vote in the general election on May 5th?

  %
Conservative 33
Labour 38
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 23
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 1
UK Independence Party 2
Other 1
 
Lab lead (±%) +5
 
Would not vote 1
Undecided 7
Refused 9

Q2 And how likely would you be to vote in the General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?

  %
10 (Absolutely certain to vote) 70
9 6
8 5
7 3
6 1
5 4
4 1
3 1
2 *
1 (Absolutely certain not to vote) 6
Don't know 1
Refused *

Q3 Can I ask have you already voted by post in the general election by post?

  %
Yes, have already voted by post 11
No, have not already voted by post 89
Don't know/refused *

Q4 Have you definitely decided to vote for the xxx party or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote?
Base: 1,251 British adults

  All Con Lab Lib Dem
  % % % %
Definitely decided 72 77 71 68
May change mind 27 23 28 32
Don't know 1 0 1 0

 See also Trends on this question

Q5 If you do change your mind about voting for this party, which party would you vote for instead?
Base: 346 British adults

  %
Conservative 12
Labour 15
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 36
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 3
Green Party 6
UK Independence Party 2
None of them/would not voted 2
Other 2
Don't know 20
Refused *

Q6 How important is it to you personally who wins the general election?

  All Con Lab Lib Dem
  % % % %
Very important 45 51 55 41
Fairly important 35 39 32 40
Not very important 11 7 9 13
Not at all important 6 3 2 3
Don't know 3 * 2 3

 See also Trends on this question

Q7 Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister — Mr Blair, Mr Howard or Mr Kennedy?

  %
Mr Blair 40
Mr Howard 21
Mr Kennedy 16
Don't know 23

 See also Trends on this question

Q8 Regardless of how you are personally going to vote, if Tony Blair is re-elected Prime Minister later this week, do you think he should step down within two years or should he remain Prime Minister for longer than two years?

  All Con Lab Lib Dem
  % % % %
Step down within two years 53 72 35 66
Remain PM for longer than two years 34 21 51 24
Don't know 13 7 14 10
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