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Financial Times Election Research — Poll 1

Published:4 April 2005
Fieldwork:1 - 3 April 2005
Sub-Theme:Other Political Trends
Source:The Financial Times

MORI's latest election poll, conducted over the weekend exclusively for The Financial Times, reveals that among 55% of the electorate who say they are absolutely certain to vote, the Conservative Party now have a five point lead over Labour, with the Liberal Democrats on 21%.

The poll clearly illustrates the impact that a low turnout could have in the forthcoming general election. Among all naming a party, Labour would have a five point lead over the Conservatives, 38% to 33%.

The explanation for this difference lies in the fact that Conservative supporters are much more likely to say they will vote at the election (77%) compared to those identifying with Labour (57%).

For a more detailed analysis of these results, read Electoral Volatility by Sir Robert Worcester

Topline Results

  • MORI interviewed 1,001 British adults aged 18+ by telephone between 1-3 April 2005
  • Data are weighted to the national population profile
  • An (*) indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
  • Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers

Voting — all naming a party

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for another party?
IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+

  %
Conservative 33
Labour 38
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 23
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 2
UK Independence Party 2
Other *
 
Lab lead (±%) +5
 
Would not vote 11
Undecided 9
Refused 1

Voting — all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for another party?
IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (551)

  %
Conservative 39
Labour 34
Liberal Democrats (Lib Dem) 21
Scottish/Welsh Nationalist 2
Green Party 2
UK Independence Party 2
Other *
 
Lab lead (±%) -5
 
Would not vote 1
Undecided 7
Refused 2

Q3 Have you definitely decided to vote for the … party or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote?
Base: All naming a party (792)

  %
Definitely decided 57
May change mind 41
Don't know 1

 See also Trends on this question

Q4 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?

  %
10 — absolutely certain to vote 55
9 6
8 9
7 5
6 3
5 7
4 2
3 2
2 2
1 — absolutely certain not to vote 8
Don't know 1
Refused *

 See also Trends on this question

Q5 Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister — Mr Blair, Mr Howard or Mr Kennedy?

  %
Tony Blair 36
Michael Howard 22
Charles Kennedy 14
Don't know 28

 See also Trends on this question

Q6 Which political party do you think has the best team of leaders to deal with the country's problems?

  %
Conservative 20
Labour 37
Liberal Democrats 8
Other 3
None 13
Don't know 18

 See also Trends on this question

Q7 Which political party do you think has the best policies for the country as a whole?

  %
Conservative 25
Labour 30
Liberal Democrats 17
Other 3
None 8
Don't know 17

 See also Trends on this question

Q8 Which political party do you think is most clear and united about what its policies should be?

  %
Conservative 18
Labour 28
Liberal Democrats 25
Other 3
None 11
Don't know 15

 See also Trends on this question

Q9 Which political party do you think would be the best at looking after the interests of people like you?

  %
Conservative 27
Labour 30
Liberal Democrats 16
Other 3
None 9
Don't know 16

 See also Trends on this question

Q10 Which political party is best placed to run the most effective election campaign?

  %
Conservative 17
Labour 46
Liberal Democrats 6
Other 2
None 6
Don't know 24
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