Financial Times Election Research — Poll 1

MORI's latest election poll, conducted over the weekend exclusively for The Financial Times, reveals that among 55% of the electorate who say they are absolutely certain to vote, the Conservative Party now have a five point lead over Labour, with the Liberal Democrats on 21%.

The poll clearly illustrates the impact that a low turnout could have in the forthcoming general election. Among all naming a party, Labour would have a five point lead over the Conservatives, 38% to 33%.

The explanation for this difference lies in the fact that Conservative supporters are much more likely to say they will vote at the election (77%) compared to those identifying with Labour (57%).

For a more detailed analysis of these results, read Electoral Volatility by Sir Robert Worcester

Topline Results

• MORI interviewed 1,001 British adults aged 18+ by telephone between 1-3 April 2005
• Data are weighted to the national population profile
• An (*) indicates a finding of less than 0.5%, but greater than zero
• Where percentages do not add up to exactly 100% this may be due to computer rounding, the exclusion of "don't knows" or to multiple answers

Voting — all naming a party

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for another party?
IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+

Voting — all absolutely certain to vote

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? Would you vote Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat or for another party?
IF UNDECIDED OR REFUSED AT Q1
Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?
Base: All 'absolutely certain to vote' (551)

Q3 Have you definitely decided to vote for the … party or is there a chance you may change your mind before you vote?
Base: All naming a party (792)

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Q4 And how likely would you be to vote in an immediate General Election, on a scale of 1 to 10, where 10 means you would be absolutely certain to vote, and 1 means that you would be absolutely certain not to vote?

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Q5 Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister — Mr Blair, Mr Howard or Mr Kennedy?

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Q6 Which political party do you think has the best team of leaders to deal with the country's problems?

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Q7 Which political party do you think has the best policies for the country as a whole?

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Q8 Which political party do you think is most clear and united about what its policies should be?

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Q9 Which political party do you think would be the best at looking after the interests of people like you?

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Q10 Which political party is best placed to run the most effective election campaign?