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Voting Intention in Great Britain: 1976-present

Figures are based on all adults naming a party

Published:10 April 2014
Fieldwork:1976 onwards
Sub-Theme:Voting Intention (all expressing a vote)
Keywords:MORI Political Monitor, political parties, Voting intention
(Click on keywords to find related Research)

This page shows the voting intentions of all respondents who name a party that they say they intend to vote for, whether or not they are certain that they will vote. This is not our "headline" voting intention figure.

We currently regard the voting intentions of those “absolutely certain to vote” as the most useful trend indicator, since it includes only those voters whose frame of mind is nearest to those who actually vote at elections: this has been our "headline" figure since November 2002. (The figures calculated as shown in this table were the "headline" figure up to October 2002. When turnouts were much higher than is usual today, this offered a good approximation to actual voting behaviour; in more recent years it has over-represented Labour’s real electoral strength, since more supporters of Labour than of other parties fail to vote.)

The table shows figures from all our published polls since 1976. It includes ad hoc polls as well as figures from the monthly Political Monitor. Most of the polls were conducted with face-to-face interviewing. Polls conducted by telephone are indicated with a (T).

1976 | 1977 | 1978 |1979 | 1980 | 1981 | 1982 | 1983 | 1984 | 1985 | 1986 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
(Ask those undecided / refused)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

1976 Con Lab Lib Other Lab lead
over Con
  % % % % ± %
18-19 March 1976 40 47 9 4 +7
8-9 April 1976 40 46 10 4 +6
1977 Con Lab Lib Other Lab lead
over Con
  % % % % ± %
March 1977 47 38 12 6 -9
21-22 September 1977 49 42 5 4 -7
25-26 October 1977 45 44 7 4 -1
1978 Con Lab Lib Other Lab lead
over Con
  % % % % ± %
12-13 April 1978 46 44 7 3 -2
24 May 1978 45 46 6 3 +1
13 June 1978 46 45 6 3 -1
11 July 1978 49 41 6 4 -8
July 1978 48 42 6 4 -6
14 August 1978 47 44 6 3 -3
4 September 1978 47 45 5 3 -2
11 September 1978 48 42 8 2 -6
8 November 1978 47 46 5 3 -1
1979 Con Lab Lib Other Lab lead
over Con
  % % % % ± %
30 January-1 February 1979
55 36 6 3 -19
3-5 March 1979
52 39 7 2 -13
29 March 1979
51 42 5 2 -9
1-2 April 1979* 51 38 10 1 -13
8-9 April 1979** 49 39 10 2 -10
16-17 April 1979** 50 38 10 2 -12
21-23 April 1979** 46 40 11 3 -6
26 April 1979** 44 41 12 3 -3
30 April-1 May 1979** (P)
44 39 14 3 -5
2 May 1979** 45 37 15 3 -8
General election result (3 May)
45 38 14 3 -7
August 1979
44 45 9 2 +1
September 1979
42 43 12 2 +1
October 1979
41 46 11 2 +5
21 November - 2 December 1979
40 45 13 3 +5

* Asked as, "How will you vote at the General Election on May 3rd?"
** Asked as, "How do you think you will vote at the General Election on 3 May?"
(P) = Panel survey

1980 Con Lab Lib Other Lab lead
over Con
  % % % % ± %
18-19 January 1980 39 47 12 2 +8
January 1980
40 43 14 3 +3
21-25 February 1980
38 46 14 2 +8
March 1980
38 46 13 3 +8
27-28 March 1980 42 46 9 3 +4
24-28 April 1980
39 44 14 3 +5
19-23 June 1980
41 43 13 3 +2
24-27 July 1980
37 47 13 2 +10
August 1980
37 48 13 2 +11
25-29 September 1980
37 46 15 2 +9
October 1980
34 50 15 2 +16
11 November 1980 38 47 13 2 +9
November 1980
36 50 13 1 +14
18-19 December 1980 32 56 11 1 +24
1981 Con Lab Lib SDP Alliance Other Lab lead
over Con
Total
Alliance
  % % % % % % ± % %
22-? January 1981
35 45 17 - - 4 +10  
?-23 February 1981
33 41 17 8 - 2 +8
19-23 March 1981
28 38 17 15 - 2 +10
23-27 April 1981
30 38 17 12 - 2 +8
9-11 May 1981 38 41 12 7   3 +3
29-30 May 1981 35 39 14 10 - 2 +4
15-16 June 1981 37 39 11 11 - 3 +2
18-22 June 1981
31 39 16 12 - 3 +6
July 1981
30 36 13 18 - 2 +6
August 1981
30 39 13 16 - 2 +9
14-18 September 1981
27 38 16 17 - 2 +11
28 September 1981 28 42 11 17 - 2 +14
23-27 October 1981
27 31 14 26 - 2 +4
27 November - 1 December 1981
27 27 8 16 19 2 0 44
10-14 December 1981
27 29 11 19 13 1 +2 43
1982 Con Lab Lib SDP Alliance Other Lab lead
over Con
Total
Alliance
  % % % % % % ± % %
21-25 January 1982
29 30 12 15 13 1 +1 40
February 1982
30 33 12 11 11 3 +3 34
March 1982
34 34 11 11 8 2 0 30
14 April 1982 33 34       3 +1 30
20-21 April 1982 (P) 36 30       3 -6 31
23-24 April 1982 (P) 39 32       2 -7 27
April 1982
35 30 10 11 12 2 -5 33
30 April 1982 43 30
    2 -13 25
3-5 May 1982 (P) 38 32       2 -6 28
May 1982
44 30 10 7 7 1 -14 25
16 May 1982 48 33       2 -15 17
23 May 1982 48 31       1 -17 20
25-26 May 1982 (P) 51 25       2 -26 23
21-23 June 1982 (P) 51 24       1 -27 23
June 1982
48 28 10 8 6 1 -20 23
July 1982
45 31 10 4 8 1 -14 22
August 1982
44 30 9 6 8 2 -14 24
September 1982
42 30 13 4 10 1 -12 27
7-12 October 1982
42
33
10
5
8
2
-9
23
21-26 October 1982
43 32 10 6 8 2 -11 23
4-10 November 1982
42
33
10
5
8
2
-9
23
18-24 November 1982
43 35 9 6 6 2 -8 21
9-15 December 1982 42 35 10 6 6 2 -7 21

(P) = Panel survey

1983 Con Lab Lib SDP Alliance Other Lab lead
over Con
Total
Alliance
  % % % % % % ± % %
5-12 January 1983
44
35



1
-9
20
20-26 January 1983 44 36 8 5 6 * -8 19
3-9 February 1983
45
32



2
-13
21
17-23 February 1983 46 32 10 5 6 * -14 21
26 February 1983
39
26



1
-13
34
3-9 March 1983
41
27



2
-14
30
16 March 1983
42
28



3
-14
27
17-23 March 1983 43 28 9 8 10 1 -15 28
7-12 April 1983
43
34



1
-9
22
17-23 April 1983 46 33 10 4 7 1 -13 20
21-25 April 1983
45
30



2
-15
23
5-11 May 1983 46 32 9 4 9 * -14 22
6 May 1983
45
34



1
-11
20
10 May 1983*
46
31



2
-15
21
12 May 1983*
49
34



2
-15
15
16 May 1983*
44
37



2
-7
17
17-18 May 1983* (P)
47
30



2
-17
21
19 May 1983*
46
37



1
-9
16
19-23 May 1983*
49
33



1
-16
17
23 May 1983*
51
33



1
-18
15
24-25 May 1983* (P)
46
30



1
-16
23
26 May 1983*
51
29



2
-22
18
31 May 1983*
44
32



3
-12
21
1-3 June 1983* (P)
45
28



2
-17
25
2 June 1983*
43
32



2
-11
23
6-7 June 1983* (P)
47
26



2
-21
25
8 June 1983*
44
28



2
-16
26
General election result (9 June)
44 28   2 -16 26
16-20 June 1983 43 27 11 6 12 1 -16 29
21-25 July 1983 44 30 11 6 8 1 -14 25
18-22 August 1983 46 30 9 5 8 2 -16 22
22-26 September 1983 45 27 13 5 8 1 -18 26
20-24 October 1983 42 37 8 4 7 2 -5 19
31 October-1 November 1983 43 35


2 -8 20
17-21 November 1983 39 37 10 5 7 2 -2 22
2 December 1983
44
37



1
-7
18
5-9 December 1983 42 37 10 3 7 1 -5 19
16 December 1983
40.5
39.5



2
-1
18

* Asked as, "How do you think you will vote at the General Election on 9 June?"

1984 Con Lab Lib SDP Alliance Other Lab lead
over Con
Total
Alliance

% % % % % % ± % %
5-11 January 1984 42 37 10 3 7 1 -5 19
16-20 February 1984 41 38 10 4 6 2 -3 19
14-20 March 1984 41 40 8 3 6 1 -1 17
24-25 April 1984 42 36


2 -6 20
25 April -1 May 1984 40 39 10 3 7 * -1 20
24-29 May 1984 40 38 8 4 9 1 -2 21
21-25 June 1984 39 39 7 3 11 1 0 21
19-23 July 1984 37 40 7 4 9 2 +3 20
16-20 August 1984 39 39 9 4 8 1 0 21
17-21 September 1984 42 36 9 3 7 2 -6 20
3-4 October 1984 43 35


3 -8 19
18-22 October 1984 44 35 7 4 9 2 -9 20
15-19 November 1984 43 35 8 4 7 3 -8 19
6-10 December 1984 40 36 8 5 9 2 -4 22
1985 Con Lab Lib SDP Alliance Other Lab lead
over Con
Total
Alliance
  % % % % % % ± % %
2-7 January 1985 42 34 9 4 8 3 -8 21
15-20 January 1985 39 35


2 -4 24
6 February 1985 37 37


2 0 24
16-18 February 1985 38 40


3 +2 19
19-24 February 1985 39 35 10 4 10 2 -4 24
21-22 March 1985 37 39


2 +2 22
19-24 March 1985 36 40 9 4 10 1 +4 23
23-28 April 1985 38 37


1 -1 24
7-13 May 1985
34
36



2
+2
28
21-26 May 1985 33 35 11 6 13 2 +2 30
18-23 June 1985 35 36 10 5 12 2 +1 27
16-21 July 1985 33 34 12 8 12 2 +1 31
13-18 August 1985 31 35 10 9 12 3 +4 31
3-8 September 1985 31 37


1 +6 31
17-22 September 1985 30 33 10 7 18 2 +3 35
2-3 October 1985 34 36


2 +2 28
15-20 October 1985 37 36 9 5 11 2 -1 25
28 October 1985 38 36


1 -2 25
19-24 November 1985 36 36 9 6 11 2 0 25
3-8 December 1985 35 35 9 7 13 2 0 28
1986 Con Lab Lib SDP Alliance Other Lab lead
over Con
Total
Alliance
  % % % % % % ± % %
4-8 January 1986 33 38 10 6 12 2 0 28
18-22 January 1986 33 36


2 +3 29
8-12 February 1986 33 37


1 +4 29
22-26 February 1986 34 35 8 7 15 1 +1 30
20-21 March 1986 31 39


2 +8 28
22-26 March 1986 34 36 7 5 15 2 +2 28
16 April 1986 32 43


1 +11 24
19-23 April 1986 34 39 7 6 12 2 +5 25
1-2 May 1986 36 38


3 +2 23
16-20 May 1986 32 40 8 3 15 2 +8 26
6-10 June 1986 35 39


2 +4 24
20-24 June 1986 34 40 8 5 11 2 +6 23
18-22 July 1986 36 37 10 4 11 2 +1 25
30-31 July 1986 32 41


2 +9 25
15-19 August 1986 37 37 9 4 11 2 0 24
5-9 September 1986 37 41


3 +4 19
19-23 September 1986 35 37 7 6 13 2 +2 26
3-7 October 1986 37 42


2 +5 19
17-22 October 1986 39 41 6 4 7 2 +2 17
3-4 November 1986
40
39



3
-1
18
20-26 November 1986 41 39 7 4 8 2 -2 18
27-30 December 1986 39 38 10 6 6 2 -1 21
1987 Con Lab Lib SDP Alliance Other Lab lead
over Con
Total
Alliance
  % % % % % % ± % %
23-28 January 1987 39 38 7 5 9 2 -1 21
6-10 February 1987 39 36 5 5 13 2 -3 23
20-25 February 1987 41 35 6 3 11 3 -6 21
6-11 March 1987 41 32 6 6 13 2 -9 21
19-20 March 1987 39 33


2 -6 26
26 March - 2 April 1987
41 29 8 4 17 1 -12 29
10-12 April 1987 42 29


3 -13 26
24-30 April 1987 44 31 8 4 12 2 -13 23
8-12 May 1987*
44
31



2
-13
23
12-14 May 1987* (P)
44
30



1
-14
23
20-21 May 1987* (P)
44
31



1
-13
24
27-28 May 1987* (P)
44
32



1
-12
23
3-4 June 1987* (P)
43
32



1
-11
24
9-10 June 1987**
44
32



2
-12
22
General election result (11 June)
43 32   2 -11 23
25 June - 1 July 1987 49 31 7 3 8 3 -18 17
21-28 July 1987 49 33 6 2 8 3 -16 17
21-26 August 1987 48 36 7 3 4 2 -12 14
24-30 September 1987 49 36 6 2 4 3 -13 12
21-26 October 1987 47 37 7 2 5 2 -10 14
19-25 November 1987 50 38 7 2 3 1 -12 11
29-30 December 1987 48 36 6 3 6 1 -12 15

* Asked as, "How do you think you are going to vote in the General Election on June 1983 11th?"
** Asked as, "Which party do you think you will vote for in the General Election on Thursday?"
(P) = Panel survey

1988 Con Lab Lib SDP Alliance Other Lab lead Total
Alliance
  % % % % % % ± % %
22-26 January 1988 50 36 7 2 3 2 -14 12
26 February - 1 March 1988 46 38 7 2 5 3 -8 14
  Lib Dem  
24-28 March 1988 46 37 8 6   3 -9  
22-26 April 1988 44 42 6 5 3 -2
27 May - 1 June 1988
44 40 7 6 3 -4
22-28 June 1988 48 38 7 5 2 -10
21-25 July 1988 46 41 8 4 1 -5
18-22 August 1988 50 36 8 4 2 -14
21-26 September 1988 44 39 8 6 3 -5
26-31 October 1988 44 39 8 6 3 -5
25-30 November 1988 45 37 8 6 4 -8
28-29 December 1988 46 36 6 7 5 -10
1989 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SDP Green Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % ± %
26-30 January 1989 47 36 8 5   4 -11
23-28 February 1989 42 39 9 7 3 -3
15-19 March 1989 44 40 6 6 4 -4
20-24 April 1989 41 41 9 6 3 0
18-22 May 1989 41 43 7 4 5 +2
22-27 June 1989 37 47 4 3 7 2 +10
20-26 July 1989 36 45 4 4 8 3 +9
17-21 August 1989 40 45 4 3 6 2 +5
21-26 September 1989 38 43 6 3 7 3 +5
19-23 October 1989 38 48 5 3 5 1 +10
23-27 November 1989 42 46 5 3 3 1 +4
27-28 December 1989 39 46 6 3 4 2 +7
1990 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SDP Green Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % ± %
18-22 January 1990 36 48 5 3 5 3 +12
15-19 February 1990 34 51 5 4 4 2 +17
15-20 March 1990 30 54 6 4 4 2 +24
19-24 April 1990 31 54 6 3 4 2 +23
17-21 May 1990 35 48 8 4 4 1 +13
13-18 June 1990 38 49 8 n/a 3 2 +11
19-23 July 1990 38 46 10 n/a 4 2 +8
16-20 August 1990 35 50 10 n/a 4 1 +15
20-24 September 1990 38 45 12 n/a 3 2 +7
18-22 October 1990 33 49 14 n/a 2 2 +16
15-19 November 1990 38 46 12 n/a 2 2 +8
27-28 December 1990 41 45 9 n/a 2 3 +4
1991 Con Lab Lib
Dem
Green Other Lab lead
  % % % % % ± %
18-21 January 1991 46 41 9 2 2 -5
22-25 February 1991 44 41 11 1 3 -3
21-25 March 1991 40 40 16 2 2 0
18-22 April 1991 42 40 15 1 2 -2
24-28 May 1991 37 43 16 2 * +6
21-24 June 1991 39 41 15 1 4 +2
19-22 July 1991 38 43 15 2 2 +5
23-27 August 1991 42 40 14 2 2 -2
20-24 September 1991 39 39 17 1 4 0
18-21 October 1991 39 45 12 2 2 +6
22-25 November 1991 40 42 15 1 2 +2
27 December 1991 38 44 14 2 2 +6
1992 Con Lab Lib
Dem
Green Other Lab lead
  % % % % % ± %
17-21 January 1992 42 39 16 1 2 -3
21-25 February 1992 39 40 18 1 2 +1
11-12 March 1992 38 41 16 5 +3
12-13 March 1992 40 39 16 5 -1
16 March 1992 38 43 16 3 +5
18-20 March 1992 38 41 19 2
+3
20-24 March 1992 38 41 17 1 3 +3
23 March 1992 38 41 17 4
+3
25-27 March 1992 38 40 20 2 +2
30 March 1992 35 42 19 4 +7
1-3 April 1992 37 39 21 3 +2
6-7 April 1992 37 40 20 3 +3
7-8 April 1992 38 39 20 3 +1
General election result (9 April)
42.8 35.2 18.3 3.7
-8
25-28 April 1992 43 38 16 * 2 -5
21-26 May 1992 43 38 16 1 2 -5
19-23 June 1992 42 39 16 1 2 -3
23-28 July 1992 39 43 15 1 2 +4
21 August 1992 38 44 14 4
+6
27 August - 1 September 1992 41 44 13 1 1 +3
18-19 September 1992 (T) 39 43 15 3
+4
25-29 September 1992 37 43 16 1 3 +6
23-27 October 1992 35 45 15 1 4 +10
27 November - 1 December 1992 34 47 15 1 1 +13
11-15 December 1992 34 47 16 1 2 +13
1993 Con Lab Lib
Dem
Green Other Lab lead
  % % % % % ± %
21-25 January 1993 37 45 14 1 3 +8
18-22 February 1993 34 46 16 1 3 +12
25-29 March 1993 32 47 17 1 3 +15
22-26 April 1993 32 46 20 * 2 +14
20-24 May 1993 28 44 24 1 3 +16
11-12 June 1993 29 44 22 4
+15
24-28 June 1993 28 46 23 1 2 +18
23 July 1993 34 44 18 4 +10
22-26 July 1993 27 44 25 1 3 +17
30 July 1993 27 41 28 4
+14
19-23 August 1993 28 42 25 1 3 +14
16-20 September 1993 29 43 25 1 2 +14
21-25 October 1993 29 45 23 1 2 +16
18-22 November 1993 29 47 22 1 2 +18
9-13 December 1993 29 47 20 1 3 +18
1994 Con Lab Lib
Dem
Green Other Lab lead
  % % % % % ± %
10-11 January 1994 (T) 30 46 20 4
+16
20-24 January 1994 28 48 20 1 3 +20
24-28 February 1994 28 47 21 1 3 +19
24-28 March 1994 27 49 20 1 3 +22
21-25 April 1994 26 47 23 1 3 +21
13-14 May 1994 (T) 26 49 20 5
+23
19-23 May 1994 27 46 23 1 3 +19
16-20 June 1994 24 52 20 1 3 +28
14-18 July 1994 23 51 21 1 4 +28
18-22 August 1994 23 56 18 1 2 +33
22-26 September 1994 25 54 17 1 3 +29
24-26 September 1994 25 52 18 5
+27
20-24 October 1994 25 57 14 1 3 +32
17-21 November 1994 24 55 17 1 3 +31
15-19 December 1994 22 61 13 1 3 +39
1995 Con Lab Lib
Dem
Green Other Lab lead
  % % % % % ± %
20-23 January 1995 27 56 14 1 2 +29
17-20 February 1995 24 58 14 1 3 +34
17-20 March 1995 25 57 13 1 4 +32
24 March 1995 25 59 12 4
+34
21-24 April 1995 26 56 15 1 2 +30
19-22 May 1995 22 58 16 1 3 +36
23-24 June 1995 (T) 32 54 11 3
+22
23-26 June 1995 29 56 13 1 2 +27
3 July 1995 (T) 33 52 10 4 +19
21 July 1995 30 52 13 5
+22
21-24 July 1995 26 59 12 1 2 +33
25-28 August 1995 25 56 15 1 3 +31
22-25 September 1995 28 51 16 1 4 +23
20-23 October 1995 27 56 13 1 3 +29
17-20 November 1995 26 56 14 1 3 +30
1-4 December 1995 28 55 13 1 3 +27
1996 Con Lab Lib
Dem
Green Other Lab lead
  % % % % % ± %
19-22 January 1996 29 55 13 1 1 +26
26-29 January 1996 28 54 15 3 +26
9-12 February 1996 26 57 14 3
+31
23-26 February 1996 26 57 14 1 2 +31
8-11 March 1996 29 55 13 3
+26
22-25 March 1996 28 57 13 * 2 +29
19-22 April 1996 28 54 14 1 3 +26
27 April 1996 29 54 13 2 2
+25
10-13 May 1996 27 56 13 5
+29
23-26 May 1996 27 54 15 1 3 +27
7-10 June 1996 27 56 13 3
+29
21-24 June 1996 31 52 12 1 4 +21
28 June - 1 July 1996 32 52 12 3
+20
23-28 July 1996 29 53 12 1 5 +24
9-12 August 1996 30 52 13 4
+22
20-25 August 1996 30 51 13 1 4 +21
6-9 September 1996 28 56 12 3
+28
20-23 September 1996 29 52 14 1 3 +23
4-7 October 1996 29 54 13 5 +25
11-14 October 1996 30 53 12 5 +23
18-21 October 1996 (T) 27 54 12 7
+27
25-28 October 1996 28 56 12 1 2 +28
30 October - 1 November 1996 (T) 30 54 12 4
+24
8-11 November 1996 33 50 12 1 3 +17
27-29 November 1996 30 52 13 5
+22
6-9 December 1996 30 51 13 1 3 +21
1997 Conservative Labour Lib Dem Green Referendum Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % ± %
24-28 January 1997 30 55 11 1 1 2 +25
21-24 February 1997 31 52 11 1 1 1 +21
21-24 March 1997* 29 50 14 1 3 1 +21
1 April 1997* 28 55 11 1 2 4 +27
2-3 April 1997* (P) 30 55 9 1 3 2 +25
8 April 1997* 34 49 12 * 1 4 +15
11-14 April 1997* 29 50 15 6
+21
15 April 1997* 32 49 13 1 2 3 +17
22 April 1997* 27 48 17 1 3 4 +21
23-24 April 1997* (P) 29 53 12 1 3
2
+24
29-30 April 1997* 28 48 18 8
+20
30 April 1997** (T)(P) 29 47 19 5
+18
General election result (1 May)
31.4 44.4 17.2 7.0
+13
20-23 June 1997
24 58 15 1 * 2 +34
25-28 July 1997
23 57 15 1 * 4 +34
21-25 August 1997
28 54 15 * 1 2 +26
26-29 September 1997
25 59 13 * * 3 +34
24-27 October 1997
24 60 12 * * 3 +36
13-14 November 1997 (T) 30 56 11 1 * 2 +26
21-24 November 1997
24 56 16 1 * 3 +32
12-15 December 1997
26 55 15 1 * 4 +29

* Asked as "How do you intend to vote at the General Election on May 1st?"
**Asked as "How do you intend to vote in the general election tomorrow?"
(P) Panel survey
(T) Telephone poll

1998 Conservative Labour Lib Dem Green Referendum Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % ± %
23-26 January 1998
28 54 14 1 * 3 +26
20-23 February 1998
28 52 15 1 * 4 +24
20-23 March 1998
28 53 14 1 * 4 +25
24-26 April 1998 (T)
30
54
13
*
 * 3
+24
24-27 April 1998
27 55 14 1 * 3 +28
21-24 May 1998
26 55 14 1 0 4 +29
24-26 June 1998 (T)
28
51
15
1
 * 5
+23
25-30 June 1998
27 56 13 1 * 4 +29
17-21 July 1998
28 53 14 1 1 4 +25
21-24 August 1998
28 52 14 1 0 5 +24
18-21 September 1998
24 56 15 1 * 3 +32
23-26 October 1998
26 53 16 1 * 4 +27
20-23 November 1998
29 53 13 1 * 3 +24
11-14 December 1998
27 54 12 1 * 5 +27

(T) = Telephone polls

1999 Conservative Labour Lib Dem Green Democratic/
UKIP/
Referendum
Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % ± %
22-25 January 1999
24 56 14 1 * 5 +32
19-22 February 1999
30 51 14 * 1 4
+21
19-22 March 1999
27 54 13 1 * 4 +27
23-26 April 1999
25 56 13 1 1 4 +31
30 April - 1 May 1999 (T)
30
50
14
1
*
5
+20
21-24 May 1999
28 52 14 1 1 4 +24
18-21 June 1999
28 51 13 2 1 5 +23
23-26 July 1999
28 51 14 2 1 4 +23
20-23 August 1999
27 49 17 2 * 5 +22
9-11 September 1999 (T)
32 49
13
1
*
5
+17
24-27 September 1999
25 52 17 1 * 5 +27
13-14 October 1999 (T)
31
52
13
1
*
4
+21
22-25 October 1999
28 56 11 2 1 2 +28
8-10 November 1999 (T)
32
50
12
6
+18
19-22 November 1999
25 55 14 1 * 4 +30
10-14 December 1999
28 54 13 1 * 4 +26

(T) = Telephone polls

2000 Conservative Labour Lib Dem Green Democratic/
UKIP/
Referendum
Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % ± %
20-25 January 2000
30 50 15 1 * 4 +20
25-27 January 2000 (T)
29
49
15
7 +20
17-22 February 2000
29 50 15 1 1 4 +21
23-28 March 2000
29 50 14 1 1 5 +21
13-18 April 2000
27 51 15 2 1 1 +24
17-19 May 2000 (T)
33
46
14
*
4
+13
18-23 May 2000
32 48 15 1 * 4 +16
8-9 June 2000 (T)
38
41
16
1
*
5
+3
22-23 June 2000 (T)
34
47
14
1
1
3
+13
22-27 June 2000
33 47 13 2 1 3 +14
29-30 June 2000 (T)
32
46
17
5
+14
12-14 July 2000 (T)
32
47
15
6
+15
20-22 July 2000 (T)
32
51
11
2
1
4
+19
20-24 July 2000
33 49 12 1 * 5 +16
17-18 August 2000 (T)
32
51
12
2
0
3
+19
17-21 August 2000 29 51 15 1 1 3 +22
14-15 September 2000 (T)
38
36
18
3
*
5
-2
14-19 September 2000
37
36
19
8
-1
21-22 September 2000 (T)
39
35
21
1
0
4
-4
21-26 September 2000
35 37 21 1 * 6 +2
29-30 September 2000 (T)
36
43
16
2
*
5
+7
13-14 October 2000 (T)
38
40
19
1
*
3
+2
19-23 October 2000
32 45 17 1 1 4 +13
2-3 November 2000 (T)
34
42
17
2
0
5
+8
24-25 November 2000 (T)
34
47
13
2
*
5
+13
23-28 November 2000
33 48 13 1 * 4 +15
7-12 December 2000
34 46 14 1 1 4 +12
13-15 December 2000 (T)
32
47
16
1
*
5
+15

(T) = Telephone polls

2001 Conservative Labour Lib Dem Green Democratic/
UKIP/
Referendum
Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % ± %
4-6 January 2001 (T)
35
46
14
1
1
3
+11
11-13 January 2001 (T)
31
53
11
1
0
4
+22
18-22 January 2001
31 50 14 1 * 4 +19
25-26 January 2001 (T)
31
49
14
1
*
5
+18
15-20 February 2001
30 50 14 1 1 4 +20
22-27 March 2001
31 50 14 1 * 4 +19
30-31 March 2001 (T)
32
48
15
1
*
4
+16
10-12 April 2001 (T)
29
53
12
1
1
4
+24
19-24 April 2001
30 50 13 2 1 4 +20
30 April - 1 May 2001 (T)
32
50
13
2
*
3
+18
8 May 2001* 30 54 13 1 1 1 +24
10-12 May 2001* (T)
31
51
13
1
*
4
+20
10-14 May 2001* (T)
26
54
14
1
1
4
+28
15 May 2001* 28 54 12 1 * 5 +26
22 May 2001* 30 55 11 1 1 2 +25
29 May 2001* 30 48 16 1 2 3
+18
31 May - 2 June 2001** (T)
27
50
17
1
*
5
+23
4-5 June 2001** (T)
31
43
20
1
1
4
+12
5-6 June 2001*** 30 45 18 7
+15
General election result (7 June)
32.7
42.0
18.8
6.5
+9.3
21-26 June 2001
25 49 19 3 1 3 +24
19-23 July 2001
25 52 17 1 1 4 +27
23-28 August 2001
25 53 16 2 1 3 +28
20-25 September 2001
27 53 15 1 * 4 +26
18-22 October 2001
25 57 13 1 1 3 +32
22-27 November 2001
25 56 15 1 * 3 +31

* Asked as, "How do you intend to vote in the General Election on June 7th?"
**Asked as "How do you intend to vote in your constituency at the General Election on June 7th?"
***Asked as, "How do you intend to vote in the General Election on Thursday?"
(T) = Telephone polls

2002 Conservative Labour Lib Dem Green Democratic/
UKIP/
Referendum
Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % ± %
24-28 January 2002
27 51 16 1 * 5 +24
21-26 February 2002
28 51 16 1 * 4 +23
21-26 March 2002
28 47 19 1 0 5 +19
18-22 April 2002
27 50 16 1 1 5 +23
23-28 May 2002
30 46 17 2 1 4 +16
20-24 June 2002
29 48 17 1 * 5 +19
18-22 July 2002
27 48 18 1 * 4 +21
22-28 August 2002
25 53 16 2 * 4 +28
19-24 September 2002
27 53 15 1 * 4 +26
17-21 October 2002
25 57 13 1 1 3 +32
From this point onwards, the figures in this table are not the same as our headline voting intention measure
14-19 November 2002
27 47 18 2 1 5 +20
12-17 December 2002
29 43 23 1 1 3 +14
2003 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % ± %
23-27 January 2003
27 44 20 4 2 1 2 17
20-25 February 2003
25 44 22 3 2 1 2 19
20-24 March 2003
27 46 20 3 2 1 1 19
24-28 April 2003
26 47 20 4 1 * 2 21
22-28 May 2003
28 43 22 4 2 1 2 15
19-24 June 2003
27 43 22 4 2 1 5 16
17-22 July 2003
32 40 21 3 2 1 4 8
28 August - 2 September 2003
30 40 21 3 2 1 3 10
11-16 September 2003
29 43 21 3 2 1 2 14
23-28 October 2003
35 38 21 3 1 1 2 3
20-25 November 2003
31 41 21 2 1 1 2 10
11-17 December 2003
28 43 22 2 1 1 2 15
2004 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % ± %
15-20 January 2004
31 41 20 3 2 1 2 10
12-16 February 2004
32 39 20 3 2 1 3 7
11-16 March 2004
32 40 22 3 2 1 2 8
15-19 April 2004
31 40 21 3 2 1 2 9
27 May - 1 June 2004
30 37 20 3 3 3 3 7
24-29 June 2004
28 37 20 3 4 6 3 9
22-27 July 2004
28 36 23 3 3 5 2 8
12-16 August 2004
30 38 21 2 2 4 3 8
10-14 September 2004
29 37 24 2 2 3 2 8
21-27 October 2004
27 40 22 3 3 3 1 13
4-8 November 2004
29 39 22 3 3 3 2 10
2-6 December 2004
27 40 24 2 3 3 1 13
2005 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % ± %
20-24 January 2005
27 42 22 2 2 2 3 15
17-21 February 2005
31 43 18 3 2 1 1 12
17-22 March 2005
33 39 21 3 2 1 1 6
1-3 April 2005* (T)
33 38 23 2 2 2 * 5
7-9 April 2005* (T)
30 41 21 3 2 2 1 +11
7-11 April 2005
30 41 22 2 2 1 2 +11
15-18 April 2005* (T)
31 41 21 2 1 1 3 +10
18-19 April 2005* (T)
28 41 22 2 3 1 3 +13
21-25 April 2005* 30 40 23 2 2 1 2 +10
28-29 April 2005* (T)
32 38 22 2 3 1 2 +6
29 Apr-1 May 2005* (T)
26 41 24 3 2 2 2 +15
General election result (5 May)
33.2 36.2 22.6  8.0
+3
19-23 May 2005
27 40 26 2 2 1 1 +13
16-20 June 2005
26 44 21 2 2 2 3 +18
14-18 July 2005
26 43 25 2 2 1 1 +17
11-15 August 2005
28 43 22 2 1 1 3 +15
22-26 September 2005
28 42 23 3 2 1 1 +14
20-25 October 2005
30 43 21 2 2 1 1 +13
17-22 November 2005
29 46 19 1 2 1 1 +17
9-12 December 2005 (T)
37 35 20 3 4 1 * -2

* Asked as, "How do you intend to vote in the General Election on May 5th?"
(T) = Telephone polls

2006 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % ± %
19-23 January 2006
35 42 17 2 2 1 2 +7
16-20 February 2006
33 41 20 2 2 1 1 +8
16-21 March 2006
31 42 19 3 3 1 1 +11
27 April - 2 May 2006
33 35 20 3 4 2 3 +2
25-30 May 2006
36 34 20 3 3 1 3 -2
8-12 June 2006 35 36 19 2 2 2 3 +1
20-22 June 2006 33 37 21 2 3 1 3 +4
20-24 July 2006
32 37 23 2 3 2 1 +5
31 August - 6 September 2006
30 38 22 3 4 1 2 +8
12-16 October 2006
32 41 18 3 3 1 2 +9
9-14 November 2006
31 36 20 3 4 2 4 +5
7-12 December 2006
34 40 18 2 3 2 1 6
2007 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % ± %
19-29 January 2007
35 40 18 4 2 * 1 +5
9-15 March 2007
37 39 16 3 3 1 1 +2
19-25 April 2007
34 36 20 3 3 1 4 +2
17-22 May 2007
33 39 18 3 3 2 3 +6
14-20 June 2007
32 42 15 3 3 1 3 +10
12-17 July 2007
31 45 15 3 2 1 3 +14
8-9 August 2007 (T) 29 42 16 2 4 2 5 +13
23-29 August 2007
31 45 16 3 1 * 3 +14
20-22 September 2007 (T) 30 44 15 3 3 2 3 +14
20-26 September 2007
28 48 14 3 2 1 4 +20
27-28 September 2007 (T) 31 45 15 2 2 2 3 +14
10 October 2007 (T) 36 42 12 4 3 1 2 +6
18-23 October 2007
35 43 13 2 2 1 4 +8
29 November-7 December 2007
37 39 14 3 2 1 4 +2

(T) = Telephone polls

2008 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % ± %
17-23 January 2008
33 43 15 2 3 1 3 +10
21-26 February 2008
34 42 15 3 2 1 3 +8
13-18 March 2008
35 40 17 2 1 1 4 +5
17-22 April 2008
37
38
16
2
3
2
2
+1
15-20 May 2008
40
34
16
2
2
1
5
-6
13-15 June 2008 (T)
41
34
15
4
2
2
2
-7
18-20 July 2008 (T)
44
38
18
2
4
1
3
-16
15-17 August 2008 (T)
42
28
17
4
4
2
3
-14
12-14 September 2008 (T)
45
29
14
4
4
1
3
-16
17-19 October 2008 (T)
39
33
17
4
4
1
2
-6
14-16 November 2008 (T)
36
41
14
3
3
2
1
+5
27-28 November 2008 (T)
39
37
16
3
3
1
2
-2
10-11 December 2008 (T)
36
40
13
4
2
1
3
+4
12-14 December 2008 (T)
35
36
17
5
3
1
3
+1

(T) = Telephone polls

2009 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP BNP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % % ± %
16-18 January 2009 (T) 40
34
17
4
2
1
1
1
-6
13-15 February 2009 (T) 39
31
19
4
3
1
2
1
-8
13-15 March 2009 (T) 39
33
17
4
3
1
2
1
-6
17-19 April 2009 (T) 37
32
20
4
4
1
2
*
-5
29-31 May 2009 (T) 35
24
19
3
7
5
3
4
-11
12-14 June 2009 (T) 37
26
20
4
5
5
2
2
-11
19-21 June 2009 (T) 36
25
18
4
5
6
4
2
-11
17-19 July 2009 (T)
35
27
19
3
6
5
3
2
-8
21-23 August 2009 (T) 37 29 18 2 6 3 2 2 -8
25-27 September 2009 (T) 35 26 25 3 4 4 1 2 -9
16-18 October 2009 (T) 40 31 18 4 3 2 1 1 -9
13-15 November 2009 (T) 34 34 16 4 4 3 3 2 0
11-13 December 2009 (T) 37 31 18 3 3 4 2 1 -6

(T) = Telephone polls

2010 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP BNP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % % ± %
26-28 January 2010 (T) 38
34 17 4
3
2
2
1 -4
19-22 February 2010 (T)
35
34
19
3
3
2
3
1
-1
19-22 March 2010 (T)
32
33
22
3
3
4
2
2
+1
18-19 April 2010 (T)
29 30
31
2
1
3
2
2
-1
23 April 2010 (T)
35 31 24 3 1
3
2
1
-4
5 May 2010 (T)
33 32
26
3
2
3
1
1
-1
Election result (6 May) 36.9 29.7 23.6 9.8 -7
18-20 June 2010(T)
35 34
19
1
4
1
2
2
-1
23-25 July (T) 38 35 15 1 4 2 2 * -3
10-12 Sept (T) 36 37 16 3 3 2 1 1 +1
15-17 Oct (T) 37 38 14 3 4 2 1 1 +1
12-14 Nov (T)
33
43
14
3
4
2
*
1
+10
10-12 Dec (T)
36
38
13
3
4
3
1
*
+2

(T) = Telephone polls

2011 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP BNP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % % ± %
21-24 January 2011 (T) 32 42 15 1 3 4 1 2 +10
18-20 February 2011 (T) 34 41 14 3 3 3 1 1 +7
11-13 March 2011 (T) 35 41 11 3 4 3 1 1 +6
15-17 April 2011 (T) 36 40 12 4 3 3 1 * +4
20-24 May 2011 (T) 33 41 11 5 5 2 1 1 +8
17-19 June 2011 (T) 36 39 12 5 3 3 1 1 +3
16-18 July 2011 (T) 31 42 10 5 5 3 2 2 +11
20-22 August 2011 (T) 34 40 13 3 5 2 * 1 +6
10-12 September 2011 (T) 34 38 13 6 5 3 1 0 +4
22-24 October 2011 (T) 33 40 13 5 4 3 1 1 +7
19-21 November 2011 (T) 33 42 13 3 5 3 * 1 +9
10-12 December 2011 (T) 39 38 12 5 2 2 1 1 -1
2012 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP BNP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % % ± %
21-23 January 2012 (T) 38 38 12 3 4 3 1 * 0
25-27 February 2012 (T) 33 43 12 3 5 1 1 1 +10
17-19 March 2012 (T) 35 38 12 3 5 3 1 2 +3
21-23 April 2012 (T) 35 40 11 6 4 3 1 1 +5
12-14 May 2012 (T) 32 43 9 4 5 6 1 1 +11
9-11 June 2012 (T) 29 43 11 5 5 5 2 1 +14
14-16 July 2012 (T) 32 41 13 4 4 4 1 1 +9
11-13 August 2012 (T) 33 41 13 3 5 3 1 1 +8
15-17 September 2012 (T) 32 42 12 3 6 3 * 1 +10
20-24 October 2012 (T) 32 43 11 5 3 4 1 2 +11
10-12 November 2012 (T)
30 46 11 5 3 3 1 1 +16
8-10 December 2012 (T) 32 43 10 3 4 7 1 1 +11

 

2013 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP BNP Other Lab lead
% % % % % % % % %
12-14 January 2013 (T) 31 45 9 3 3 7 * 2 +14
9-11 February 2013 (T)
31 41 9 3 5 8 1 1 +10
9-11 March 2013 (T) 28 39 12 3 4 12 1 1 +11
13-15 April 2013 (T) 29 38 12 3 5 11 * 1 +9
11-13 May 2013 (T) 31 38 10 3 5 11 1 1 +7
8-10 June 2013 (T) 29 36 12 4 4 12 1 2 +7
13-15 July 2013 (T) 28 39 13 3 4 10 1 1 +11
10-12 August 2013 (T) 31 40 10 2 5 11 * * +9
7-9 September 2013 (T) 30 40 10 4 4 10 1 2 +10
12-15 October 2013 (T) 33 38 11 4 4 9 * 2 +5
9-11 November 2013( T) 32 39 10 3 7 6 1 2 +7
7-9 December 2013(T) 32 39 10 5 5 8 1 1 +7

 

 

2014 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP BNP Other Lab lead

% % % % % % % % ± %
11-14 January 2014 (T) 32 37
11
4
4 11
* 1 +5
1-3 February 2014 (T)
31 39 11 4 3 10 * 2 +8
8-12 March 2014 (T)
29 37 12 3 6 11 * 1 +8
 5-7 April 2014 (T)  32   27   9   3   4   14   *   1  +5 
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Dr Roger Mortimore
Dr Roger Mortimore

Director of Political Analysis

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