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Voting Intention in Great Britain: Recent Trends

Figures based on all those absolutely certain to vote.

Published:15 September 2014
Fieldwork:2002 onwards
Sub-Theme:Voting Intention (only those 'certain to vote')
Keywords:Certain to vote, Voting intention
(Click on keywords to find related Research)

This page shows the voting intention figures of those of the public who say they are "absolutely certain to vote" from all our published polls since we started measuring voting intention on this basis in 2002. It includes ad hoc polls as well as figures from the monthly Political Monitor.

We currently regard the voting intentions of those “absolutely certain to vote” as the most useful trend indicator, since it includes only those voters whose frame of mind is nearest to those who actually vote at elections: this has been our "headline" figure since November 2002. (Please note that this measure is not based on the assumption that this is the group who will vote at the next general election, as this population are not accurately identifiable in mid-term polls.) Up to October 2002, the "headline" figure was based on the responses of all those giving a voting intention, regardless of how certain they were that they would vote.

Unless indicated, polls were conducted with face-to-face interviewing. Polls conducted by telephone are indicated with a (T).

2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014

Q1 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?
(Ask those undecided / refused)

Q2 Which party are you most inclined to support?

2002 Con Lab Lib
Dem
Green Dem/
UKIP/
Ref
Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % ± %
14-19 November 2002
30
42
21
1
1
5
+12
12-17 December 2002
33
37
24
1
1
4
+4
2003 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green Dem/
UKIP/
Ref
Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % ± %
23-27 January 2003 27 44 20 4 2 1 2
+17
20-25 February 2003 29 41 22 3 2 1 2 +12
20-24 March 2003 29 43 21 3 2 1 2 +14
24-28 April 2003 29 43 21 4 1 * 1 +14
22-28 May 2003 31 39 22 4 1 1 1 +8
19-24 June 2003 32 41 19 4 2 1 1 +9
26-27 June 2003 (T)
35
35
19
11
0
17-22 July 2003 38 35 21 3 1 1 1 -3
28 August - 2 September 2003 34 36 24 3 1 * 2 +2
11-16 September 2003 31 40 21 3 2 * 3 +9
23-28 October 2003 35 38 21 3 1 1 2 +3
31 October - 2 November 2003 (T)
32
38
25
2
2
*
1
+6
20-25 November 2003 35 36 22 2 2 1 2 +1
11-17 December 2003 31 40 22 3 1 1 2 +9

(T) = Telephone polls

2004 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % ± %
15-20 January 2004 35 37 21 3 2 1 1 +2
12-16 February 2004 35 36 21 3 2 1 2 +1
11-16 March 2004 35 35 23 3 2 1 2 0
15-19 April 2004 34 36 22 3 2 1 2 +2
27 May - 1 June 2004 34 35 18 3 3 4 4 +1
24-29 June 2004 31 34 19 3 4 6 2 +3
22-27 July 2004 31 32 24 3 3 5 2 +1
12-16 August 2004 32 36 21 2 2 4 3 +4
10-14 September 2004 33 32 25 2 2 4 2 -1
21-27 October 2004 29 39 22 3 3 4 1 +10
4-8 November 2004 31 35 23 3 3 3 2 +4
2-6 December 2004 30 35 26 2 3 3 1 +5
2005 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % ± %
20-24 January 2005
32 38 22 3 2 2 2 +6
17-21 February 2005
37 39 18 2 2 1 1 +2
17-22 March 2005
37 37 20 2 1 1 2 0
1-3 April 2005* (T)
39 34 21 2 2 2 * -5
7-9 April 2005* (T)
33 40 19 3 2 2 1 +7
7-11 April 2005
35 39 21 2 2 1 * +4
15-18 April 2005* (T)
32 40 21 1 2 1 3 +8
18-19 April 2005* (T)
32 39 22 2 2 1 2 +7
21-25 April 2005 34 36 23 2 2 2 1 +2
28-29 April 2005* (T)
33 36 22 3 2 2 2 +3
29 April-1 May 2005* (T)
29 39 22 3 2 3 2 +10
3-4 May 2005* (T)
33
38
23
6
+5
General election result (5 May)
33.2 36.2 22.6  8.0
+3
19-23 May 2005
30 37 26 2 1 1 2 +7
16-20 June 2005
29 42 21 2 2 2 2 +13
14-18 July 2005
28 41 25 2 2 1 1 +13
11-15 August 2005
31 39 24 2 2 1 1 +8
22-26 September 2005
29 39 25 3 1 1 2 +10
20-25 October 2005
34 40 21 2 1 1 1 +6
17-22 November 2005
32 42 19 2 2 1 1 +10
9-12 December 2005 (T)
40 31 21 4 3 1 * -9

* Asked as, "How do you intend to vote in the General Election on May 5th?"
(T) = Telephone polls

2006 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % ± %
12-17 January 2006 (T)
39 39 15 2 3 1 2 0
19-23 January 2006 40 38 17 2 2 1 1 -2
16-20 February 2006
35 38 20 1 2 1 3 +3
16-21 March 2006
34 39 19 3 3 1 1 +5
20-22 April 2006 (T)
30 30 25 4 4 2 5 0
27 April -2 May 2006 36 32 21 2 4 2 3 -4
25-30 May 2006
41 31 18 2 3 2 2 -10
8-12 June 2006 41 34 18 2 2 2 2 -7
20-26 June 2006 36 33 21 2 4 1 3 -3
20-24 July 2006
36 32 24 2 3 2 1 -4
31 August - 6 September 2006 35 36 19 3 3 1 3 +1
12-16 October 2006
35 37 18 3 3 2 2 +2
9-14 November 2006
35 33 20 3 3 1 5 -2
7-12 December 2006
37 36 18 2 3 2 2 -1

(T) = Telephone polls

2007 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % ± %
19-29 January 2007
39 35 19 3 1 * 3 -4
9-15 March 2007
41 33 17 3 3 1 2 -8
19-25 April 2007
38 31 20 3 3 1 3 -7
17-22 May 2007
37 35 18 3 3 2 3 -2
14-20 June 2007
36 39 15 3 3 1 3 +3
12-17 July 2007
35 41 15 3 2 1 3 +6
8-9 August 2007 (T)
33
38
15
2
3
2
7
+5
23-29 August 2007
36 41 16 3 1 1 2 +5
20-22 September 2007 (T)
34
42
14
3
2
2
3
+8
20-26 September 2007
31 44 15 3 2 1 4 +13
27-28 September 2007 (T)
34
41
16
2
2
2
3
+7
10 October 2007 (T)
41
38
11
4
2
1
3
-3
18-23 October 2007
40 41 13 2 2 1 2 +1
31 October - 1 November 2007 (T)
40
35
13
4
2
2
4
-5
23-27 November 2007 (T)
41
32
17
5
2
1
2
-9
29 November - 7 December 2007
42 35 14 4 2 1 2 -7

(T) = Telephone polls

2008 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % ± %
9-10 January 2008 (T)
42
32
15
4
3
1
3
-10
17-23 January 2008
37 38 16 2 2 1 4 +1
21-26 February 2008
39 37 16 3 2 1 3 -2
13-18 March 2008
40 35 18 2 1 1 3 -5
17-22 April 2008
40
31
19
3
3
2
2
-9
15-20 May 2008
45
32
14
3
2
1
3
-13
13-15 June 2008 (T)
45
28
16
4
3
3
1
-17
18-20 July 2008 (T)
47
27
15
2
4
2
3
-20
15-17 August 2008 (T)
48
24
16
3
5
2
2
-24
12-14 September 2008 (T)
52
24
12
4
4
1
3
-28
17-19 October 2008 (T)
45
30
14
3
3
1
4
-15
14-16 November 2008 (T)
40
37
12
3
3
2
3
-3
27-28 November 2008 (T)
43
32
15
4
3
2
2
-11
10-11 December 2008 (T)
41
36
11
5
3
1
3
-5
12-14 December 2008 (T)
39
35
15
3
3
2
3
-4

(T) = Telephone polls

2009 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP BNP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % % ± %
16-18 January 2009 (T) 44 30 17 4 2 1 1 1 -14
13-15 February 2009 (T) 48 28 17 2 1 1 2 1 -20
13-15 March 2009 (T) 42 32 14 4 3 1 2 1 -10
17-19 April 2009 (T) 41 28 22 3 2 1 1 2 -13
29-31 May 2009 (T) 40 18 18 4 6 7 4 3 -22
12-14 June 2009 (T) 39 25 19 3
4
6
2
2
-14
19-21 June 2009 (T) 38 21 19 3 5 8 5 1 -17
17-19 July 2009 (T)
40 24
18
3
5
5
3
2
-16
21-23 August 2009 (T)
43 26
17
2
4
4
1
3
-17
25-27 September 2009 (T)
36
24
25
3 3
4
1
4
-12
16-18 October 2009 (T)
43
26
19
4 2
2
1
2
-17
13-15 November 2009 (T)
37 31
17
3
3
3
2
4
-6
11-13 December 2009 (T) 43 26 20 2 3 4 2 1 -17

(T) = Telephone polls

2010 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP BNP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % % ± %
26-28 January 2010 (T) 40 32 16 3 3 3 2 1 -8
19-22 February 2010 (T) 37 32
19
3
2
2
2
1
-5
19-22 March 2010 (T) 35 30 21 2 3 6 2 1 -5
18-19 April (T)
32 28
32
1
1
3
0
3 -4
23 April (T)
36
30
23
4
1
3
2
1
-6
5 May (T)
36
29
27
2
1
3
 1 1
-7
General election result (6 May) 36.9 29.7 23.6 9.8 -7
18-20 June (T)
39
31
19
2
4
2
3
1 -8
23-25 July (T) 40 38 14 1 3 2 2 * -2
10-12 Sept (T) 37 37 15 3 3 2 2 1 0
15-17 Oct (T) 39 36 14 3 3 3 1 1 -3
12-14 Nov (T)
36
39
14
3
4
2
*
 2 +3
10-12 Dec (T)
38
39
11
4
4
4
1
1
+1

 

2011 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP BNP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % % ± %
21-24 January 2011 (T) 33 43 13 2 3 4 1 1 +10
18-20 February 2011 (T)
33
43
13
3
3
3
1
1
+10
11-13 March 2011 (T)
37
41
10
3
3
3
2
1
+4
15-17 April 2011 (T) 40
40
9
4
3
3 *
1
 0
20-24 May 2011 (T)
35 42
10
4
6
2
1
1
 +7
17-19 June 2011 (T)
37
39
11
5
3
3
1
1
+2
16-18 July 2011 (T)
32 39
11
5
5
4
2
2
+7
20-22 August 2011 (T)
34
40
15
2
5
3
1
1
+1
10-12 September 2011 (T)
35 37
13
5
3
3
1
3
+2
22-24 October 2011 (T)
34
38
12
5
4
4
1
1
+4
19-21 November 2011 (T)
34
41
12
4
4
3
1
1
+7
10-12 December 2011 (T)
41
39
11
4
2
2
1
1
-2
2012 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP BNP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % % ± %
21-23 January 2012 (T) 38 38 12 4 4 3 1 * 0
25-27 February 2012 (T)
35 41 12 4 4 2 1 1 +6
17-19 March 2012 (T)
36
37
11
3
5
4
1
3
+1
21-23 April 2012 (T) 35
38
12
5
4
4
1
1
+3
12-14 May 2012 (T)
33
43
9 5
3
6
1
1
+10
9-11 June 2012 (T)  31 40 10 5 5 6 2 2 +9
14-16 July 2012 (T)   31 44 12 5 3 5 * 1 +13
11-13 August 2012 (T) 32 42 11 4 4 4 1 +10 
15-17 September 2012 (T) 30 41 13 3 8 4 * * +11
20-24 October 2012 (T) 33 43 9 4 3 6 1 2 +10
10-13 November 2012 (T)
32 46
9
4
4
3
1
1
+14
8-10 December 2012 (T) 35 44 9 3 3 7 * * +9
2013 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP BNP Other Lab lead
  % % % % % % % % %
12-14 January 2013 (T) 30 43 8 3 3 9 * 2 +13
9-11 February 2013 (T) 30 42 7 4 4 9 1 1 +12
9-11 March 2013 (T) 27 40  11  13   1   1   +13 
13-15 April 2013 (T) 29  38  10 15   *  1  +9 
 11-13 May 2013 (T) 31  34  10   4 6 13  +3 
 8-10 June 2013 (T)  31 35  10  12  +4 
 13-15 July 2013 (T) 29  40  10  12  +11 
 10-12 August 2013 (T)  30  40  10  2  6  11 +10 
 7-9 September 2013 (T) 34 37  10  11  +3 
 12-15 October 2013 (T) 35  35  10 
 9-11 November 2013 (T) 32  38  +6 
 7-9 December 2013 (T)  33 37  10   +4
2014 Con Lab Lib
Dem
SNP/
Plaid
Cymru
Green UKIP BNP Other Lab lead

% % % % % % % % %
11-14 January 2014 (T) 30 39 13 5 3 11 * * +9
 1-3 February 2014 (T)
 31 38
12
5
3
10
0
2
+7
 8-12 March 2014 (T)
32
35
13
4
5
11
*
1
+3
 5-7 April 2014 (T) 31  37  15  +6 
 10-12 May 2014 (T) 31  34  11  +3 
 14-17 June 2014 (T) 31  34  14  +3 
 12-15 July 2014 (T) 32  35  12  +3 
 9 - 11 August 2014 (T)
33 33 7 13
0
 6-9 September 2014 (T) 34  33  15  -1 

(T) = Telephone polls

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