Ipsos MORI’s November Political Monitor (carried out by telephone between 13-15 November among 1,006 British adults aged 18 and over) shows, among those certain to vote, an increase in support for Labour and a fall in support for the Conservative Party.
Among those absolutely certain to vote, 37% intend to vote Conservative (down from 43% in October), 31% intend to vote Labour (from 26%) and 17% the Liberal Democrats (down from 19%)
These figures represent Labour's highest voting intention share in Ipsos MORI polls since March 2009, and reduce the Conservative lead to six points, its smallest level since the end of 2008, when the government was benefiting from the ‘bailout bounce’. Projections based on uniform swing suggest that a lead of this size at the general election would not be sufficient to give the Conservatives an overall majority. However, the survey was conducted over the weekend immediately following Labour's victory in the Glasgow North East by-election, and the public's mood may be a temporary reflection of that rather than anything more lasting.
A third (34%) are satisfied with the way Gordon Brown is doing his job as Prime Minister and three-fifths (59%) are dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction score (the percentage satisfied minus the percentage dissatisfied) of -25, a seventeen point improvement since July and a five point increase since September.
A quarter (25%) are satisfied and two thirds (67%) dissatisfied with the government’s performance, a seven point increase in net satisfaction (-42 now compared to -49 last month). It also represents a twenty point improvement since June.
On the other hand, satisfaction with David Cameron and Nick Clegg has remained steady since October, with net satisfaction scores of +13 and +15 respectively.
Economic optimism for the next year remains high. Nearly half (46%) think that the economy will improve over the next 12 months, and less than a quarter (23%) think it will get worse. Ipsos MORI’s Economic Optimism Index therefore stands at +23, its highest level since the month Tony Blair was elected Prime Minister (and breaking the record already set in October).
Two thirds (68%) believe the result of the next general election is important to them personally, an identical figure to June 2008. Three in ten (29%) believe it is not personally important to them.
Ipsos MORI interviewed a representative sample of 1,006 adults aged 18+ across Great Britain. Interviews were conducted by telephone 13th-15th Nov 2009. Data are weighted to match the profile of the population. Where percentages do not sum to 100, this may be due to computer rounding , the exclusion of 'Don't Know' categories, or multiple answers.