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News of the World: Election Poll

Published:25 April 2010
Fieldwork:23 April 2010
Source:Ipsos MORI / News of the World
Keywords:2010 British general election, Conservative Party, Labour Party, Lib Dems, Voting intention
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Con 36% (+4), Lab 30% (+2), Lib Dem 23% (-9)

Interviews were conducted on 23rd April 2010.

Voting intentions

Voting intention is Con 36, Lab 30, Lib Dem 23: a slightly lower Lib Dem share that we have seen recently.

However, almost half say they may change their mind before May 6th. There is hardly any difference by party support, although Conservatives are slightly more likely than Labour or Lib Dem voters to say they have definitely decided (57% compared to 54%).Two-thirds of the public say they are certain to vote (67%).

One in ten (12%) say they are voting tactically - Lib Dem voters are most likely to be doing so (17%).

The second debate

Six in ten people say that they watched the debate on Thursday, either live or reported afterwards.

Of these, almost half say it has had no impact on how they intend to vote (45%). A third say it has encouraged them to vote for the party they already vote for (32%). One in ten say it has made them switch (11%), and half this say it has made them change from being undecided to choosing to vote for a party (6%). There is very little difference by party support, although it appears to have reinforced the conviction of existing Tory voters more so than for the other parties (37% compared to 34% for Lab and Lib Dem).

Most people think a hung parliament would be a bad thing for Britain (57%), although a significant minority think it would be a good thing (34%). Conservative voters are most likely to think it would be bad, while Lib Dems are most in favour of the outcome.

Leaders

Cameron is still seen as the most capable Prime Minister, although his lead over Brown continues to narrow. Cameron is now on 32%, Brown four points behind on 28% and Clegg on 17%. Yet in February Cameron's lead was 9 points, and in Sept last year it was 17 points.

On leader image, Cameron is most likely to be seen as having sound judgement (tied with Clegg on 47%). He is also seen as the most patriotic of the leaders (73%).

Brown is seen as best in a crisis (46%) and the least inexperienced (as you might expect), but he is also seen as the most out of touch with ordinary people (55%).

Clegg is seen as rather inexperienced (76%), but is felt to be most honest ( 49%) (despite the allegations this week) and least out of touch (25%).

Technical details

This data is based on 1,245 adults aged 18+ in Great Britain. Fieldwork took place on 23rd April 2010.
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