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Labour halt decline as SNP support slips

Ipsos MORI Scotland Public Opinion Monitor: June 2012

Published:26 June 2012
Fieldwork:7 - 13 June 2012
Labour has increased its share of voting intention for the Scottish Parliament for the first time in over 18 months. Our latest Scottish Public Opinion Monitor finds the party on 32% among those certain to vote, up 9 points since January. The poll is likely to provide a further boost for Johann Lamont the following an increase satisfaction with her performance as leader and a good showing in May's local elections.

The SNP remain the dominant party among voters with 45%, although this is down 4 points since January. This decrease in support coincides with declines in the First Minister's popularity and support for independence, which have fallen by 5 points and 4 points respectively since January.

The Scottish Conservatives remain in third place on 12%, down a point since January. However, there is bad news for the Liberal Democrats, who are on 6%, down 4 points since January.

Christopher McLean, Senior Research Executive at Ipsos MORI Scotland said:
“This is a encouraging poll for Johann Lamont and Labour. Following the increase in her personal ratings, it also suggests that she has had some success in reversing the considerable decline in support for Labour over the last 18 months. However, it is clear that the SNP remain the dominant party at Holyrood. Support for the Nationalists has receded from their post-election bounce, but remains at a similar level to that which delivered a majority in last year’s election.”

Technical Note

  • Results are based on a survey of 1,003 respondents conducted by telephone between 7th and 13th June 2012.
  • Data are weighted by age, sex and working status using census data, and tenure using SHS data, and by public-private sector employment by Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Series data.
  • An asterisk (*) indicates a percentage of less than 0.5% but greater than 0.
  • Where results do not sum to 100, this may be due to multiple responses or computer rounding.
  • Where the base size is less than 30 the number (N) rather than the percentage of respondents is given.
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Mark Diffley
Mark Diffley

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Christopher McLean
Christopher McLean

Senior Research Executive